008
FXUS63 KJKL 021259
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
859 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE TO
WED.
- HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI TO SUN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
FOG IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
AFTER SOME EARLIER INSTANCES OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE FOG STILL
REMAINS PER SATELLITE NEAR FISHTRAP LAKE, CARR FORK LAKE AND IN
PORTIONS OF THE FORKS OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. AS WE APPROACH AND CROSS 3 HOURS PAST
SUNRISE NEAR 915 AM EDT, THE REMAINING FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TODAY
(500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE ON THE ORDER OF 6 DM TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
JUST A VERY MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO INCORPORATE THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ALSO, ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS AS THE
DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS ARE COOLING OFF RAPIDLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
LATE NIGHT TEXT AND RADIO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CHANGES. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS ASIDE FROM TOUCHING UP THE
POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, SKY GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS AND ADJUSTING BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS. EARLY
EVENING TEXT AND RADIO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE
CHANGES. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE KY-80 CORRIDOR IN OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES WITH WHEN
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE FRONT AND WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AT
THAT TIME. JUDGING FROM THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KY MESONET AND
OTHER SOURCES, THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST SOME FIRING OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE KY-80 CORRIDOR AND THE TN BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
BY MID-EVENING AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST BECOMES MOSTLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP TO THE DEW POINT IN THE
VALLEYS, MEANING WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID-40S EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO RISE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH OUR EASTERN VALLEYS MAY STILL REACH THE MID-40S TO
GO ALONG WITH MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
NOTE THAT DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THIS WILL BRING WITH IT
THE APPEARANCE OF MILKY WHITE HAZY SKIES AT TIMES. HOWEVER, IT WAS
FELT THAT VISIBILITY WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED, SO
ANY MENTION OF HAZE WAS KEPT OUT OF THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A MESSY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CONUS
TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF VA/NC, WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS REGIME WILL BRING US DRY WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THE OVERALL EFFECT OF
THIS WILL BE TO FLATTEN AND DISPLACE THE EASTERN RIDGE FURTHER TO
THE EAST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAKENING THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GIVE A MORE ZONAL (BUT NOT FLAT) UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS GENERALLY HOLD OFF ON A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
OF PRECIP IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF NOW HAVE AN EASTWARD MOVING PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY, GIVING ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BRING
OUR HIGHEST POP AND MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON SATURDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED PASS, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW FAR IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING,
LEAVING SUNDAY AS A QUESTION MARK IN TERMS OF POP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE REGION. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SGF
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