632
FXUS63 KJKL 021950
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE TO
WED.
- HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI TO SUN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM FROM
WESTERN CANADA TO MT AND SOUTH OVER MORE OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY A DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER OH AND WV TO KY WHILE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER NEAR 50
OR IN THE 50S TO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO HIGHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TO WESTERN KY. A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FORM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CAROLINAS TO THE TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH
VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY SEPARATED THE RIDGING CENTERED IN THE
APPALACHIANS FROM ANOTHER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF THE
REGION WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME THOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/EASTERN
KY RISING INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND REMAINING NEAR THOSE LEVELS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS/ VIRGINIA AREA THOUGH THE PERIOD OF 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
WILL END ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES TO END
THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX
REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PRECEDING IT REACHING SOUTH
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO MID MS
VALLEY AND OZARKS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD ENDS WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING, PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT ON AVERAGE WITH LARGER
RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ON RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS NEARER TO THE CENTER OF SFC
AND UPPER RIDGING MORE FAVORED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A MESSY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE OVER THE CONUS
TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF VA/NC, WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS REGIME WILL BRING US DRY WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLIMB IN
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/UPPER LOWS WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH DURING THE MID-LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THE OVERALL EFFECT OF
THIS WILL BE TO FLATTEN AND DISPLACE THE EASTERN RIDGE FURTHER TO
THE EAST, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAKENING THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GIVE A MORE ZONAL (BUT NOT FLAT) UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS GENERALLY HOLD OFF ON A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
OF PRECIP IN THE JKL FORECAST AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF NOW HAVE AN EASTWARD MOVING PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY, GIVING ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ALLOWING IT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BRING
OUR HIGHEST POP AND MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON SATURDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED PASS, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW FAR IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING,
LEAVING SUNDAY AS A QUESTION MARK IN TERMS OF POP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. NON TAF
SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG WITH SOME MVFR
TO IFR REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
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