374
FXUS63 KJKL 022050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE TO
WED.
- HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK FROM DISTANT
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI TO SAT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM FROM
WESTERN CANADA TO MT AND SOUTH OVER MORE OF THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY A DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER OH AND WV TO KY WHILE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER NEAR 50
OR IN THE 50S TO 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO HIGHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TO WESTERN KY. A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FORM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CAROLINAS TO THE TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH
VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY SEPARATED THE RIDGING CENTERED IN THE
APPALACHIANS FROM ANOTHER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TONIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN KY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WEST OF THE
REGION WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME THOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY/EASTERN
KY RISING INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND REMAINING NEAR THOSE LEVELS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS/ VIRGINIA AREA THOUGH THE PERIOD OF 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
WILL END ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES TO END
THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS THE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO ARKLATEX
REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PRECEDING IT REACHING SOUTH
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO MID MS
VALLEY AND OZARKS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD ENDS WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING, PRECIPITATION FREE
WEATHER IS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT ON AVERAGE WITH LARGER
RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ON RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS NEARER TO THE CENTER OF SFC
AND UPPER RIDGING MORE FAVORED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE 02/12Z MODEL SUITE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWS A 500H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM
NEAR/NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1025 MB HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FAR TO OUR NORTH,
A LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON, THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO, AND BEYOND THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT'S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH AS A IT PUSHES
EAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ENCOUNTERS THE INITIALLY
RESILIENT RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, A DOWNSLOPING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP DEW POINTS SUPPRESSED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT INTO THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, FINALLY ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AMIDST THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. A FEW INSTANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64. HOWEVER, A CAP
AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT SHOULD INHIBIT MOST ACTIVITY
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR EAST IS BREAKING DOWN AS THE 500H TROUGH TO OUR
WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. A NEW WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND RIDES ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN SKIMS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS IT PASSES, THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE
AT TIMES, THEIR POTENTIAL INTENSITY IS SHROUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO THE NIGHTTIME/MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EBWD (SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION)
BUT INSTABILITY COULD BE QUITE MEAGER. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES (OR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY) AND RELATIVELY THIN MODELED CAPE PROFILES FAVOR
HEAVY RAIN RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CORES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
IS THROUGH, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE AS
THE 500H TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT
MOST LOCATIONS WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64 (POP 20% NEAR
THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER UP TO 60% IN FLEMING COUNTY). THE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (60 TO 70% POP AREA-WIDE) COME FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
LINGER IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THOSE WILL DEPEND
UPON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT (AND ANY NEW LOW
DEVELOPMENT) DEPARTS. AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES DO SETTLE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 80F AND LOWS IN THE
60 TO 65F RANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. NON TAF
SITE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG WITH SOME MVFR
TO IFR REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 04Z AND 13Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...JP
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