105
FXUS63 KJKL 031205 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND HOLDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY
AND WED.
- HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI TO SAT
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS MEANT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO A MODERATE TO LARGE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. SPECIFICALLY, READINGS
CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ON THE RIDGES TO THE MID 40S IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH LESS DISTINCTION NOTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH - NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. JUST THE BAREST HINGS OF FOG ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW UP
ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE CHANNEL.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT 5H RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PEAKING
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO BREAKDOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN EASTWARD PUSHING BROAD TROUGH - CURRENTLY TO THE WEST. SOME
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ENCROACHMENT OF LOWER
HEIGHTS LATE WEDNESDAY BUT STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER -
THOUGH SOME WEAKNESS IS ALSO NOTED THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING SUPPORTED USING THE
NBM AS THE STARTING POINT WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY
TO ADD IN SOME TERRAIN DETAILS FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT
UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THIS MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ONE OF THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SPRING SO
FAR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO THE EAST AND RIDGING ALOFT.
FINALLY WE WILL GET A TASTE OF SUMMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
CONDITIONS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EVEN TONIGHT WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE FOR MOST PLACES, THOUGH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND PARTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A QUICKER AND DEEPER
DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. SIMILARLY, WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE A BIT MORE FOG AROUND TONIGHT PERHAPS SETTING IN
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE TIMES
OF CLOUDS (AND SMOKE) THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THESE WILL BE
MOSTLY HIGH ONES LEAVING THE AREA WITH A STRETCH OF SOME WELCOMED
DRY WEATHER.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT FOR
TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS. THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES WERE
ALSO TWEAKED DOWN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS - THE WERE KEPT
A ZERO OR LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY IN LINE WITH ALL
CAMS GUIDANCE. FOR SKY GRIDS THE NBM ONES WHERE BLENDED WITH THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE MODELING CONSIDERING
THE AEROSOLS FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WITH THE EXTENDED MAINLY ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO TAKE
OUT THE FOG IN THE LATE NIGHT WEATHER GRIDS DUE TO MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SEEING CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT AFTER THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE NEW WEEK - PERHAPS
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKEWISE, THE CLOUDS AND PCPN KEPT THE TERRAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO A MINIMUM AFTER THURSDAY MORNING WITH JUST A TOUCH
ADDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING. AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER
THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A BRIEF
RESPITE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST WITH DECENT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN THE WIDENING MODEL SPREAD FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST THE NBM IS TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE 02/12Z MODEL SUITE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWS A 500H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM
NEAR/NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1025 MB HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FAR TO OUR NORTH,
A LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON, THROUGH THE
CHICAGO METRO, AND BEYOND THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT'S UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH AS A IT PUSHES
EAST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ENCOUNTERS THE INITIALLY
RESILIENT RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EVEN AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER, A DOWNSLOPING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP DEW POINTS SUPPRESSED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT INTO THURSDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, FINALLY ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AMIDST THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. A FEW INSTANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64. HOWEVER, A CAP
AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT SHOULD INHIBIT MOST ACTIVITY
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR EAST IS BREAKING DOWN AS THE 500H TROUGH TO OUR
WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. A NEW WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND RIDES ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN SKIMS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS IT PASSES, THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE
AT TIMES, THEIR POTENTIAL INTENSITY IS SHROUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO THE NIGHTTIME/MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF EBWD (SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION)
BUT INSTABILITY COULD BE QUITE MEAGER. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES (OR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY) AND RELATIVELY THIN MODELED CAPE PROFILES FAVOR
HEAVY RAIN RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CORES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
IS THROUGH, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN AS THE 500H
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT
MOST LOCATIONS WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ON THURSDAY. WITH THAT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-64 (POP 20% NEAR
THE VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER UP TO 60% IN FLEMING COUNTY). THE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (60 TO 70% POP AREA-WIDE) COME FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
LINGER IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THOSE WILL DEPEND
UPON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT (AND ANY NEW LOW
DEVELOPMENT) DEPARTS. AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES DO SETTLE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 80F AND LOWS IN THE
60 TO 65F RANGE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HOLD OVER THE REGION. FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO, FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE VALLEYS BUT WILL STAY CLEAR
OF THE TERMINALS - LIKEWISE LATE TONIGHT EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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