089
FXUS63 KJKL 041447
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- HAZY SKIES LINGER FROM DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL AND JUST BLENDED IN THE RECENT OBS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK
ON TRACK, WITH MOST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY GETTING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. IN ADDITION, THE VALLEY FOG SEEN THIS MORNING HAS
DISSIPATED, SO FRESHENED UP THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL DOMINATED BY A
FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM AND YIELDED A DECENT RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPECIFICALLY,
MERCURY READINGS VARIED FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES ON THE HILLS TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST SHELTERED SPOTS. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND
ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST PLACES. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE VALLEYS, AS WELL.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT 5H RIDGING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE STATE LATER TODAY ON
ACCOUNT OF A LARGE AREA OF TROUGHING EASING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PROCESS BRINGS HEIGHT FALLS TO THE REGION
AS WELL AS INTRUSIONS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN INITIAL IMPULSE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
JKL CWA TONIGHT - WHILE SOME WEAKNESS ALSO PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES THEN MOVE MORE EFFECTIVELY INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE PATTERN SUPPORTS WEST TO EAST
TRANSLATION OF MID LEVEL PERTURBANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK - IN A REGION OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SMALL MODEL
SPREAD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SUPPORT USING THE
NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO ADD IN SOME DETAILS FROM THE CAMS
FOR POPS AND WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ONE MORE PLEASANT, WARM, AND DRY DAY FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME HAZE IN THE AIR ALOFT
SO THE HRRR SMOKE COMPONENT WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE SKY GRIDS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR TO THIS CURRENT NIGHT,
ANTICIPATE A MILD ONE INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT MORE, AND LOWER, CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST LATE AT NIGHT - LIKELY CAPPING THE TEMPERATURE
DROPS TOWARD DAWN. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND
THAT MAY BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE JKL CWA THOUGH BETTER CHANCES
AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONG STORMS ARRIVE AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS
WARM ON THURSDAY BUT THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN
AROUND.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES - DID ADJUST THEM EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT CONSIDERING EXPECTED TERRAIN
DISTINCTIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE BESET WITH MCS ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WITH ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AMID HIGH PW AIR AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT. THE CLEARING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY LOOKS LESS CERTAIN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO -
PERHAPS DELAYED BY A DAY. THOUGH ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MORE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. LOOKING AT THE NBM'S PDF - THE
WEEKEND IS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SPREAD BUT THE VALUES WORK
BACK TOWARD THE MIDDLE NEAR THE START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE 03/12Z MODEL SUITE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING SHOWS AN ~591 HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE COD. A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES, EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM AN ~533 DAM LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY TO OFF THE
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW, ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, LIFTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE CAROLINAS. AN ~1023
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTER
BANKS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS POSITIVELY. THE WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND EAST AS THE PARENT FEATURE IS ABSORBED
INTO THE TROUGH. PWATS WILL ALSO CLIMB ACROSS THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY COALFIELDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY.
LOWER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BLEND HAS TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST
PACKAGE(RANGING FROM 30-40% ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER UP TO 60%
NORTH OF I-64). THE LONGER RANGE CAMS, NAMNEST AND HRW-FV3 SUGGEST
JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PKWY/KY-80 CORRIDOR, WHERE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING IS LESS NOTABLE. WHILE THE MLCAPE COULD EXCEED 1,500 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, RATHER WEAK SHEAR (EBWD OF 10 TO 20 KTS)
RELEGATES ANY ACTIVITY THAT MATERIALIZES TO BE OF A MORE PULSY
NATURE (THOUGH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS ORIGINATING FROM THE MORE INTENSE
DOWNDRAFTS). ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCE ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET ORIENTED UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE GREATEST RAIN THREAT APPEARS INITIALLY OVER THE
BLUEGRASS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THOSE CHANCES THEN INCREASE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE, PASSING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY LEAVES OVERALL
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UNCERTAIN. IN
SCENARIOS WHERE GREATER HEATING IS REALIZED, SHEAR WILL BE SEMI-
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES (OR THE 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY) AND RELATIVELY THIN CAPE PROFILES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CORES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEW WEEK, BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DRIER FOR SUNDAY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN
ALOFT. RENEWED CYCLOGENESIS DOES OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS COULD
KEEP SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER OUR AREA, BUT ANY RAINFALL
APPEARS INCREASINGLY MINIMAL. SHOULD CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE, SUNDAY'S FORECAST COULD TURN NOTABLY DRIER. HEADING
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM 500H LOW/TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND DROPPING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
RENEWED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT, THOUGH SPECIFICS REMAIN FUZZY
AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
PERCENT NEAR VIRGINIA TO NEAR 60 PERCENT NORTH OF I-64. ONCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION DIMINISHES, VARIABLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. AFTER A LATE EVENING LULL, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES PEAKING (80%+) FRIDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO
1.50 INCHES CAN EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 60S. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WEEKEND, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, LEAVING SUNDAY FAVORED
TO BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
WHILE LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. RAIN CHANCES AND
SKY COVER INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
OFF FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM MAINLY INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST ON MONDAY, THEN DIP BACK INTO UPPER 70S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE TYPICAL RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND LAKES
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS THROUGH 13Z,
BUT TAF SITES, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS KSME BRIEFLY, ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AFTER ABOUT 15Z WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT AGL LEVEL
IF NOT HIGHER - ALONG WITH SOME MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
THOSE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT BETWEEN 4 AND 8 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
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