573
FXUS63 KJKL 051951
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- HAZY SKIES LINGER FROM DISTANT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND STAY AROUND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRI AND SAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PIKE AND
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
UPDATED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND IN RECENT OBS AND FRESHEN UP
ZONES TO GET RID OF EARLY MORNING FOG WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
AND A TOUCH OF SPRINKLES IN THE FAR EAST. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE ENCROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE REMNANTS OF THE HIGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT - WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES ON THE VIRGINIA SIDE OF
THE STATE LINE - WHERE SOME SFC PRESSURE WEAKNESS WAS NOTED. THIS
MEANT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. SPECIFICALLY, READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE UPPER 60S ON THE HILLS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE MORE
SHELTERED LOW SPOTS. AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AGAIN THIS NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING
SIGNS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ON SATELLITE AND IN SOME OF THE
OBS - AHEAD OF HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE QUICK EXIT OF THE SOUTHEAST 5H RIDGE
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING. LOCALLY, THIS ALLOWS HEIGHT
FALLS AS BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH SLOUCHES INTO THE STATE
ALONG WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
CARRY A SUCCESSION OF PERTURBANCES THROUGH THE STATE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY
CROSSING WEST TO EAST IN THE FAIRLY FAST FLOW. THE SMALL MODEL
SPREAD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SUPPORT USING THE NBM
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO ADD IN SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST
CAMS FOR POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
WITH LULLS AT NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TOO MUCH CLOUDINESS AND
LINGERING CONVECTION TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DISTINCTIONS, AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FRIDAY SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OWING TO THE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
LIKELY PROMPTING AN MCS TO SURVIVE INTO THE REGION THAT MORNING
AND COME EAST WHILE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST GOOD
VENTING ALOFT FOR ANY STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LONG
HODOGRAPHS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
THESE STORMS BUT ALSO A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED QLCS TORNADO - DEPENDING ON THE STORM
EVOLUTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES - ASIDE FROM
THIS MORNING'S TERRAIN DIFFERENCES - DID NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM THE
NBM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING,
SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS, AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HIGH WATER OR FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AS
SUCH THE SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOMERSET TO
HARLAN. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE WPC ALSO HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT AND INTERACT WITH A LARGER, MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE STATE, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HUG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL SEE A TENTH OR TWO. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS
THE OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA.
MONDAY, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGIONS LOOK TO PLAY OUT A LARGE SCALE FUJIWHARA EFFECT,
ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS OCCURS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A RESURGENCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, HOWEVER, MOISTURE SNEAKS IN FROM THE
SOUTH, WITH SOME MOISTURE RIDING A COLD FRONT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, A LOW OVER THE OZARKS, AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE THE SYSTEMS OCCLUDED FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, PROVIDED THE NEXT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THOROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE CWA, WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 4K TO 6K RANGE. SOME CONVECTION IS ALREADY
STARTING TO BUBBLE UP, AND HAS THE CHANCE TO BRUSH TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP TO INCLUDE THAT CHANCE. CHANCES FOR STORMS FADE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT A QUICK HIGHER GUST COULD BE
SEEN IF A STORM ROLLS OVER A TAF SITE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page