753
FXUS63 KJKL 062030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES STAY AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA AS WE'VE ENTERED PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN ENTERING OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST, AIDED BY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ROUGHLY WSW ACROSS THE
CWA, BRINGING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH IT, PARTICULARLY OUR
MORE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. OUR NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER STORMS FROM THIS
LINE, AS IT BECOMES FURTHER DISCONNECTED FROM THE BETTER SUPPORT. A
VERY BRIEF LULL IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS LINE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A
LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO TAP INTO, WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SO, HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED
NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF AN
AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THE CWA WILL BE SITTING IN A
FLATTENED, ALMOST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MULTIPLE SMALL WAVES ARE SET TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW. ONE OF THE MORE PROMINENT WAVES TO
IMPACT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST, SERVING AS A ROUGH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER
AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FOCUSING ON SENSIBLE IMPACTS, EXPECT A SHORT DIP IN THE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TOMORROW MORNING AFTER TONIGHT'S ROUND OF CONVECTION
MAKES IT THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS WE ENTER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
EXPECT MORE SCATTERED, DIURNALLY AIDED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED MCV-LIKE CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH INTO THE
NIGHT, SUPPORTED IN PART BY THE SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THERE'S
STILL A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THE CONVECTION TONIGHT
WILL IMPACT THE ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TOMORROW, AND
THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE'S
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE STORMS
TO TAP INTO THAT SPC HAS PLACED US WITH ANOTHER OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. MOST OF OUR AREA WAS PLACED WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT
OF 5), WHILE OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES ARE IN A
SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5). TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD AND
DIURNALLY LIMITED, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE
MOVING THROUGH IT. ONE OR TWO OF THESE SMALLER WAVES AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW COULD STILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THEIR INFLUENCE
WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. THE HIGHEST POP ON SUNDAY HAS BEEN PLACED
EARLY IN THE DAY. A MUCH LARGER AND MORE POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
TEMPORARILY DEEPENING THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH A LIKELY POP.
THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY FRONT (EVIDENT IN THE GFS) ON TUESDAY,
AND THE PRECIP LINGERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THEN. DRYING THEN
ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING, OPENING,
AND GETTING CARRIED AWAY TO THE EAST IN THE PREVAILING FLOW. THIS
LEAVES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, CUTTING OFF
OUR REPRIEVE FROM SUMMER WEATHER. WARMER READINGS AND GRADUALLY
CLIMBING DEW POINTS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR
MODEST UPPER LOW ALSO RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE
IN THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO WORK AT FLATTENING IT. WITH GULF MOISTURE
ALSO MAKING A COMEBACK, SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WON'T BE RULED
OUT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STORMS IS STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA, MOST LIKELY
AFFECTING KLOZ AND KSME WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ALL
TAF SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORM. AFTER THE
CONVECTIONS WANES, LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA, AND ONLY BEGIN TO RAISE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BEFORE A CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION. WINDS OUTSIDE OF
STORMS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page