280
FXUS63 KJKL 261611
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES PEAKING
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE 90S BY
SATURDAY.
- DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BEFORE PEAKING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED WITHIN A
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
PRACTICALLY NO SHEAR. OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER
TENNESSEE HAS LARGELY SERVED AS THE TRIGGER FOR THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAUSED BY TERRAIN.
SOME SEVERE THREAT EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS STORMS BUILD THROUGH AND ENTRAIN A DRY AIR MASS IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, INVERTED-V LOWER LEVELS UP TO
5-KFT WOULD SUPPORT DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL THUS BE
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 831 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
A FAIRLY COMPREHENSIVE MID-MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT. WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY OVER/NEAR BATH COUNTY AND THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR, POPS WERE RAISED TO 15 NEARLY AREAWIDE
BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z HOUR AND THEN INTERPOLATED UPWARDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING.
RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR ABOVE A
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONGER STORMS,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS. A SMALL
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
A LINGERING STORM OR TWO REMAINS IN THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE BUT SHOULD FADE OUT THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE,
HAVE MAINLY JUST INCLUDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESHENED SAFS AND ZONES WITH THE HWO
UPDATED AS SOON AS THE STORMS END.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO LOSE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS ALLOWED A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ON THE INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THESE PULSERS ARE BRIEFLY STRONG BEFORE COLLAPSING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND A BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO FADE OUT
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. CURRENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT WINDS AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO ADJUST
THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT PER RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE VALLEY FOG EXPECTATIONS INTO DAWN, THURSDAY. THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL HELP
TO INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MORE SUPPORTIVE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THESE MORE SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREA-WIDE, ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ONE MORE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.
MEANWHILE, ONE MORE NIGHT OF RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT OUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN JACKSON AND
LONDON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH A TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA, WHICH ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY PRESENT AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY EACH
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY LOWER BACK
TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS, WHILE LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD TO WARM
BUT ALSO TREND BACK BELOW THREATENING DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGH
MINIMUMS. THE ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT DOES NOT LOOK TO
CHANGE IS THE HIGH HUMIDITY, WITH 70S CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY IF NOT ALSO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MORNING FOG
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING, AND
SHOULD CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 12Z. MORE DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEY WILL TAKE 1-2 HOURS LONGER TO CLEAR, BUT IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
OF POP-UP STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW SO CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS BELOW VFR CONDITIONS, GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CAMDEN/SGF
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