095
FXUS63 KJKL 261815
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES PEAKING
IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL LOWER INTO
THE 90S FOR SATURDAY.
- DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BEFORE PEAKING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MAY BRING AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET NUDGED EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS
MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
IMPINGING WESTERLIES WILL PUSH A DISTURBANCE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL 8 PM
EDT FRIDAY. THIS IS BASED ON A LARGELY PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WHEREBY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING GRADUALLY DOWNWARD BY A DEGREE
OR TWO EACH DAY, WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL TECHNICALLY NOT HIT THE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES, THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RECORD WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IS
AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENSION/CONTINUATION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY AIR MASS ALOFT, WITH
AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BELOW THE
LCL. THUS, PULSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH OUTFLOWS
OUTWARD WHICH MAY/WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND OUTFLOW
WINDS AS A RESULT.
A REPEAT OF THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT CHANGE. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY EVENING THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN AS A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT
BETWEEN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH A LARGE YET LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE BLUEGRASS STATE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. THIS ACTIVITY THEN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL REDUCTION OR POSSIBLY EVEN ELIMINATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS) WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE
LOWS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE AND MORE VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 60S. AFTER THE POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
DROP FARTHER INTO THE 60S FOR ALL LOCATIONS, WITH SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH UPPER 50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
UTILIZED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH
OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EVEN A GOOD DISTANCE FROM THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT VALLEY TERMINALS WHERE RAIN OCCURS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PRIMARILY DAYTIME CONVECTION AND NIGHTTIME/EARLY
MORNING FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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