054
FXUS63 KJKL 271857
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES (BUT NOT THE HUMIDITY) GRADUALLY MODERATING EACH
DAY. HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE TODAY
WILL LOWER INTO THE 90S FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MAY BRING AT LEAST TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE LAST DAY OF OUR STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE DAYS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS ARRIVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 90
DEGREE MARK TODAY FOR MANY, ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THESE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 70S, ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
AND IS EXPANDING, PROVIDING RELIEF AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MUDDLED PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH DIURNALLY AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY FORCED
MESOSCALE PRESSURE REGIMES IN PLAY. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK ~1008 MB
LOW IS PASSING IS PASSING NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE, MI. A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD FROM THAT LOW THROUGH CHICAGO, IL AND THEN
WESTWARD PAST KANSAS CITY, MO. ALOFT, THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK
CIRCULATION ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LATEST SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE AREA WITH BETWEEN 3,5000 AND 5,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST
NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND, IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE SHEAR. THIS
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MICROBURST COMPOSITE VALUES GENERALLY
AROUND 3 OR HIGHER, ALONG WITH 0-3 KM MAX THETA-E DIFFERENCES
GREATER 20-25 C AND PWATS MOSTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST THAT
THAT ANY STRONGER, DEEPER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
UNTIL THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF HIGH WATER OR FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL.
FOR TONIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING. FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM IN LOCATIONS
THAT EXPERIENCE RAINFALL, AND COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. IT WILL
REMAIN MUGGY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 65 TO 70F.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, THE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO PRESENT AGAIN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS AND HIGH WATER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOG
AFTER EVENING CONVECTION WANES. IT WILL AGAIN BE MUGGY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70F.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME ALOFT
BETWEEN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH A LARGE YET LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE BLUEGRASS STATE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. THIS ACTIVITY THEN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL REDUCTION OR POSSIBLY EVEN ELIMINATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS) WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE
LOWS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS WELL WITH MORE AND MORE VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 60S. AFTER THE POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
DROP FARTHER INTO THE 60S FOR ALL LOCATIONS, WITH SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COOLER VALLEYS POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH UPPER 50S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SCATTERED POPUP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH, AND IN SOME CASES, DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCATIONS DIRECTLY UNDER
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AND STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT,
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY RAINFALL ARE FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE FOG AND
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT OF
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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