301  
FXUS63 KJKL 010055 AAA  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
855 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
- GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT.  
 
- DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE FOR MID-  
LATE WEEK.  
 
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA AND  
THIS IS ALLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE TO DOMINATE WITH THE PEAK IN  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW WANING THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY  
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, MOST  
PLACE. MEANWHILE, AMID VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE  
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY  
TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS WHILE  
TAKING DOWN THE NEAR TERM POPS PER A QUIETENING RADAR AND WARMING  
CLOUD TOPS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD  
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND  
SAFS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST LATE TODAY,  
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST  
TO KS. A SULTRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS THE TROUGH  
APPROACHES, FURTHER ENABLING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DIURNAL  
HEATING TODAY. CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING, BUT IS  
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER, THE THREAT  
WILL PERSIST TO SOME EXTENT DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM  
APPROACHES. THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BOTH PASS THROUGH THE  
REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE NOW MORE  
STRONGLY SUGGESTING DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY FOR MORE OF THE  
AREA, AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.  
 
THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE  
WATER IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2", AND WITH FAIRLY WEAK  
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT FROM ANY  
TRAINING OF CELLS WHICH OCCURS.  
   
LONG TERM  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWS  
A LINGERING 500H TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ALONG THE  
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA NORTHWESTWARD INTO IN  
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1018 MB HIGH  
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARKS, SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE  
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH, WHILE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BE  
EAST OF APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE  
USHERING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO EASTERN  
KENTUCKY.  
 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST. BY  
SUNDAY, SOME WEAKNESS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE'S  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH SCOOTS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INITIALLY, A DRY WEST NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS TOLERABLE THROUGH JULY 4TH, THOUGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY THOUGH,  
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SENDING AN  
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AIR MASS BACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. (PWATS  
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING TO MOISTEN  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.) THAT WILL SPELL THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND.  
 
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A MORE DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MIDDLE 80S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE  
FROM THURSDAY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE NIGHTTIME WILL SEE  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOG IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MOST  
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH  
EACH DAY OF DRYING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SMALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY WITH  
HIGHER CHANCES FOR MONDAY. THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS DRY  
WITH A COOL START IN THE MID 60S FOLLOWED BY A HOT AND SUNNY  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS OF 89-94F. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID AND  
UPPER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT THERE  
WERE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. ANY OF  
THESE COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. A GENERAL  
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT, BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT COMPLETELY GO AWAY.  
IN ADDITION, MAINLY VALLEY FOG COULD IMPACT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS  
INTO DAWN WITH TIMES OF MVFR OR LOWER CIG/VIS. LOOK FOR RENEWED,  
AND BETTER, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON  
TUESDAY WITH TIMES OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS. AWAY FROM ANY  
STORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 
 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...GREIF  
SHORT TERM...HAL  
LONG TERM...GEERTSON  
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF  
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