042
FXUS63 KJKL 011854
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY
AS A FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA.
- DRY WEATHER AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE FOR MID WEEK
LASTING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WARM SECTOR
REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW,
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT, IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THE
FRONT ITSELF IS EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE COMMONWEALTH AND DOWN TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
STORMS CHANCES MAXIMIZING AHEAD OF FROPA. LOCALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK IN DEEP INSTABILITY AND
MEDIOCRE SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, A LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
EXISTS MEANING THAT EFFICIENT STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH PWATS
UPWARDS AND OVER 2.00"; HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO PROGRESSIVE AND
THAT SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLASH FLOODING/HYDROLOGY THREAT. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID-80S FOR WEDNESDAY BUT DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER-
60S LEADING TO A DRY-HEAT COMPARED TO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WE SAW THE
LAST FEW DAYS.
IN SUMMARY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S PRE-
FRONTAL. ONCE FROPA OCCURS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID-80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE 30/12Z MODEL SUITE ANALYSIS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOWS
A LINGERING 500H TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA NORTHWESTWARD INTO IN
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN ~1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARKS, SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH, WHILE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
USHERING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST. BY
SUNDAY, SOME WEAKNESS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE'S
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH SCOOTS TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. INITIALLY, A DRY WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP DEW POINTS TOLERABLE THROUGH JULY 4TH, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY THOUGH,
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY SENDING AN
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AIR MASS BACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. (PWATS
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING TO MOISTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.) THAT WILL SPELL THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A MORE DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE
FROM THURSDAY RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE NIGHTTIME WILL SEE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOG IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MOST
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH
EACH DAY OF DRYING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID
90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SMALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR MONDAY. THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS DRY
WITH A COOL START IN THE MID 60S FOLLOWED BY A HOT AND SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS OF 89-94F. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CAUSED SHORT-LIVED REDUCTIONS
IN CATEGORY WHEN THERE'S ACTIVITY AT A TERMINAL BUT RECOVERY BACK
TO VFR IS RATHER QUICK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE
FRONT CROSSES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT
THAT'LL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE ACHIEVED
TONIGHT. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, EXPECT CATEGORICAL REDUCTION AT TAF
SITES. FOG WILL BURN OFF AROUND 14Z AND ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO
VFR.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
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