468
FXUS63 KJKL 050600 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- OUR ONGOING BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID EXTEND THE POPS AND MINIMAL THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA CONSIDERING THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY AND CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF
THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT MID-EVENING. STILL EXPECT THE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
DECK THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION AS WELL AS PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT. EXPECT SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS IS LARGELY QUIET, WITH A DOME OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO HOME, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
SITUATED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE, MAKING THIS ONE OF THE
MORE ACTIVE PORTIONS OF THE CONUS.
AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH,
PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WITH THE JKL CWA ON THE
UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE CWA, WHICH WILL FAVOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE HUMID. FORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID-80S, MAKING IT A LARGELY PLEASANT AND NOT OPPRESSIVE DAY.
RETURNING TO POP, ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL TAPER
OFF TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS WILL
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
TUESDAY BRINGS MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER AS TODAY, BUT THE TROUGH
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING BETTER POP
CHANCES TO THE AREA, BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID-80S WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS, LEADING
TO ANOTHER MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY (ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES). SINCE THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, POP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN A LITTLE LONGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE
TRAINING OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.60 TO 1.70 INCHES, SOME HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT, BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE HUMID. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE TYPICAL FOG CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED, BUT
SYNOPTICALLY, IT WILL BE FAIRLY MUNDANE. TO START THE PERIOD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE. BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG-
TERM, THAT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE
AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN.
WITH THIS TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD, POP CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-
80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF EACH EVENING, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG (IF CLOUD COVER CAN
DISSIPATE). BY THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO THE MEAN
FLOW AND GIVE WAY TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, BUT THE THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY, WHICH WILL BURN OFF EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
TERMINALS ARE ALL REPORTING VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND
VALLEY AND COULD YET BRING SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO LOZ PRE-
DAWN. VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED WHERE SKIES CLEAR THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND DURATION OF CLEARING IS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SOME OF MVFR VISIBILITY AND CIGS AT SME AND
LOZ DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
SUBSTANTIVE CLEARING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD
- AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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