526
FXUS63 KJKL 051730
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- OUR ONGOING BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE COOL SIDE AND
THUS FAR HAVE PREVENTED MOST LOCATIONS FROM REACHING THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO THIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH MORE ISOLATED AND WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SHOWER COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR WITHIN A LOW-STABILITY AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, AND WILL THUS EXPAND MINIMUM 15 TO 20 POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING WITH THE 14Z HOURLY POP GRID. ALSO
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON MOST RECENT HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OTHERWISE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
ALONG WITH POP TWEAKS IN THE NEAR TERM PER CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS INCLUDING A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS KEEPING THE
PATTERN RATHER STAGNANT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING THIS NIGHT BUT NOTHING TOO
IMPACTFUL ASIDE FROM KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND AND LIMITING THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A PATTERN DOMINATED BY A BURGEONING SOUTHWESTERN
5H RIDGE WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK, THIS TROUGHING WILL MEAN PLENTY OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER KENTUCKY EVEN AS THE 5H HEIGHTS
WILL BE CLIMBING WITH TIME. A SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING SUPPORTS USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY JUST
TO TWEAK THE POPS BY ENHANCING THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND ADDING SOME
DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION
WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BUT SOME
TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN OUR AREA AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL MAKE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT NIGHT, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS, WE WILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS. EACH
DAY LOOKS A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS IN THIS PATTERN WHILE
NIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY MILDER, AS WELL.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
THE DIURNAL NATURE TO THE POPS EACH DAY WITH CAMS CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE DETAILS AGAIN INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED
MUCH ASIDE FROM A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION APPLIED TO THEM
EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE NBM CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR
THIS PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES WARRANTED - GENERALLY
JUST SOME HINTS OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION EACH NIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A RATHER ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED, BUT
SYNOPTICALLY, IT WILL BE FAIRLY MUNDANE. TO START THE PERIOD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE. BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG-
TERM, THAT TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE
AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN.
WITH THIS TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD, POP CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-
80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF EACH EVENING, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG (IF CLOUD COVER CAN
DISSIPATE). BY THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO THE MEAN
FLOW AND GIVE WAY TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, BUT THE THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY, WHICH WILL BURN OFF EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ALL VFR BY ~19Z TO 20Z AS LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT WITH DECREASING STABILITY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. WILL
CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. FOG MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN COMING OUT OF THE
VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT
RAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD - AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
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