838
FXUS63 KJKL 060408
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1208 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- OUR ONGOING BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
HAVE SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO ONCE AGAIN ACCOUNT FOR VERY NEAR TERM
POSITIONING OF REMAINING PRECIP. IT DOES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DECLINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
CONVECTION IS ON AN OVERALL DECLINE, BUT FLARED UP IN A FEW PLACES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE VERY SHORT TERM
TRENDS, BUT IS STILL SHOWING DECLINING ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
INITIAL CONVECTIVE PRECIP POPPED UP FROM AROUND KIOB AND KFGX
WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN IN. THIS AREA APPEARS LARGELY WORKED OVER
NOW, WITH ACTIVITY HAVING SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF THE ORIGINAL AREA,
BUT ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR THE POP TO DROP OFF A LITTLE FASTER AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE NIGHT, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA.
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT NECESSITATES AT LEAST
15 PERCENT FOR HOURLY POPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON ANY SUSTAINED
CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE TO TAP INTO THAT POTENTIAL. FOR NOW,
WILL GO NEAR NBM GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.
LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY MOST FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S,
ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE NBM CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR THIS
PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES WARRANTED - GENERALLY JUST SOME
HINTS OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION EACH NIGHT.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR FRINGES OF THE TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, THOUGH ON THE WHOLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO RISE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE
CENTERS OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH AS MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS INCREASES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN
THE 60S, BUT MAY BEGIN TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THOSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THERE WERE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD, MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND KSME TO AROUND KSYM.
THERE WERE BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY VFR.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNDERGO AN OVERALL DECLINE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER IN
THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF CLOUDS THIN OUT
OVER PLACES THAT RECEIVED RAIN, WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
LIKELY RESULTING. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
DURING THE DAY, WHICH WOULD AGAIN BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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