783
FXUS63 KJKL 060555 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- OUR CURRENT BREAK FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY, TODAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS
INCLUDING A TOUCH UP TO THE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER RADAR
IMAGERY AND CAMS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND STRAY THUNDERSTORMS STILL OUT THERE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING
OF THE ZONES, HWO, AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
HAVE SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO ONCE AGAIN ACCOUNT FOR VERY NEAR TERM
POSITIONING OF REMAINING PRECIP. IT DOES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DECLINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
CONVECTION IS ON AN OVERALL DECLINE, BUT FLARED UP IN A FEW PLACES
IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE VERY SHORT TERM
TRENDS, BUT IS STILL SHOWING DECLINING ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
INITIAL CONVECTIVE PRECIP POPPED UP FROM AROUND KIOB AND KFGX
WESTWARD TO SOUTHERN IN. THIS AREA APPEARS LARGELY WORKED OVER
NOW, WITH ACTIVITY HAVING SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF THE ORIGINAL AREA,
BUT ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. HAVE ALSO ALLOWED FOR THE POP TO DROP OFF A LITTLE FASTER AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE NIGHT, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA.
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT NECESSITATES AT LEAST
15 PERCENT FOR HOURLY POPS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LINGERING ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON ANY SUSTAINED
CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE TO TAP INTO THAT POTENTIAL. FOR NOW,
WILL GO NEAR NBM GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA.
LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY MOST FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S,
ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE NBM CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR THIS
PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES WARRANTED - GENERALLY JUST SOME
HINTS OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION EACH NIGHT.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR FRINGES OF THE TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, THOUGH ON THE WHOLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DO RISE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE
CENTERS OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH AS MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CHANCES FOR 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS INCREASES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN
THE 60S, BUT MAY BEGIN TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THOSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
THERE WERE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF KJKL. THESE
WERE BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS INCLUDING LIFR
FOG AND CIGS AT KSYM. OUTSIDE OF THIS, CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY
VFR. THE CONVECTION WILL UNDERGO AN OVERALL DECLINE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOG MAY BECOME A CONCERN
ELSEWHERE TOWARDS DAWN. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF
CLOUDS THIN OUT OVER PLACES THAT RECEIVED RAIN, WITH IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS LIKELY RESULTING. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING, RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE DAY, WHICH WOULD AGAIN BRING
LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AWAY FROM ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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