950
FXUS63 KJKL 061741
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- OUR CURRENT BREAK FROM THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY, TODAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
WEAK-FLOW REGIME ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF INTO
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT BROAD INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER AVERAGE
COMPARED TO TODAY IN THE MID-80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
THE NBM CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR THIS
PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES WARRANTED - GENERALLY JUST SOME
HINTS OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION EACH NIGHT.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE CENTERS
OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SEEING 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK INCREASES DIURNAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THUS MAY IMPEDE HIGHS FROM REACHING
THEIR POTENTIAL AND COULD MODERATE HIGHS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, BUT MAY BEGIN
TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK AS THOSE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD MAY
BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 22Z-00Z, WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING.
USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN SUCH OCCURRING, WITH PROB30 GROUPS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
A BIT LOWER. ADDITIONALLY, FOG WILL BE ON TAP TO DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT A FEW OF THE TAF TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. AWAY FROM
ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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