236
FXUS63 KJKL 070406
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1206 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE THROUGH BUBBLING UP AND
DYING, IT HAS GONE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
WEAK-FLOW REGIME ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL EXIT EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF INTO
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT BROAD INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING.
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH, WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY 1 TO 2
DEGREES HIGHER ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
THE NBM CONTINUES TO WELL REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR THIS
PATTERN WITH ONLY SOME SMALL CHANGES WARRANTED - GENERALLY JUST SOME
HINTS OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION EACH NIGHT.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE CENTERS
OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SEEING 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A BIT MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK INCREASES DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THUS MAY IMPEDE HIGHS FROM
REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL AND COULD MODERATE HIGHS DOWNWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, BUT
MAY BEGIN TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK
AS THOSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING AT TAF ISSUANCE,
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THEY ARE ON
AN OVERALL DECLINE, AND THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT
TAF SITES LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP, CONDITIONS
WERE MAINLY VFR. AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES, CLOUDS WILL ALSO START
TO DRY UP THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATING/COOLING,
WITH VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT RESULTING DURING THE NIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED ARE KSME AND KLOZ. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE IN VALLEYS WHICH RECEIVED
RAIN. FOG WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY MORNING. AS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING LOCALIZED SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page