758
FXUS63 KJKL 070825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WITH THE CORE OF IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. AN SPS IS IN
EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
WELL ALIGNED WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FILLING WEAK TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG 5H RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY EVEN AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO THIN OUT THE AMOUNT
AND CONCENTRATION OF ANY ENERGY PACKETS AT MID-LEVELS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STILL VERY SMALL
MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTS USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED - MAINLY JUST TO TWEAK THE POPS FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
AND ADDING SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME MINOR TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATION MAKING FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. THE CONVECTION DIES OFF WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG - LOCALLY DENSE -
IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS A
NOTCH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LESS IN THE WAY OF LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
THE DIURNAL NATURE TO THE POPS EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE DETAILS
FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED
MUCH ASIDE FROM A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION APPLIED TO THEM
TONIGHT - OWING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES - BUT LIMITED BY THE SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE FROM THE
NBM GUIDANCE WITH A BUILDING 5H RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE AREA LEADING
TO LESS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, BASICALLY THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ADD IN A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO
THE TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE CENTERS
OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SEEING 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A BIT MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK INCREASES DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THUS MAY IMPEDE HIGHS FROM
REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL AND COULD MODERATE HIGHS DOWNWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, BUT
MAY BEGIN TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK
AS THOSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT TAF ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED
BY THIS IN A SIGNIFICANT WAY ARE KSME AND KLOZ. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG SHOULD BE IN VALLEYS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAWN THIS MORNING.
AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON - BRINGING
LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THESE STORMS,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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