603
FXUS63 KJKL 071757 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
157 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO END WEEK AND LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND NEARER TO OR IN EXCESS OF THE 70 DEGREE
MARK NEAR AND WEST OF I-75. A BIT OF A MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE
MIXING RATIO FIELD IS PRESENT NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AT THIS POINT
WITH A THETA E GRADIENT PROGGED BY GUIDANCE TO BE PRESENT NEAR
THE MIDDLE TO WESTERN PORTION OF THE JKL CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING. CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE VA BORDER AND
ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AT PRESENT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN/CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MTNS NEAR THE TN
AND VA BORDER SHOULD BE FOCUS AREAS FOR CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR EARLIER ONSET
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OR HIGHER POPS IF NOT AN INCREASE IN POPS TO AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT.
AT THIS POINT, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATION TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WITH THE CORE OF IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. AN SPS IS IN
EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
WELL ALIGNED WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FILLING WEAK TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG 5H RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING LOCALLY EVEN AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO THIN OUT THE AMOUNT
AND CONCENTRATION OF ANY ENERGY PACKETS AT MID-LEVELS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STILL VERY SMALL
MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTS USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED - MAINLY JUST TO TWEAK THE POPS FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT
AND ADDING SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME MINOR TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATION MAKING FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. THE CONVECTION DIES OFF WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG - LOCALLY DENSE -
IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS A
NOTCH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LESS IN THE WAY OF LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
THE DIURNAL NATURE TO THE POPS EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE DETAILS
FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED
MUCH ASIDE FROM A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION APPLIED TO THEM
TONIGHT - OWING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES - BUT LIMITED BY THE SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE FROM THE
NBM GUIDANCE WITH A BUILDING 5H RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE AREA LEADING
TO LESS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, BASICALLY THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO ADD IN A TOUCH OF TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO
THE TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH(S)
SITUATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD EITHER WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE LACK OF PROXIMITY TO THE CENTERS
OF ANY MID-LEVEL/UPPER HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY IN TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SEEING 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A BIT MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK INCREASES DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THUS MAY IMPEDE HIGHS FROM
REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL AND COULD MODERATE HIGHS DOWNWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE 60S, BUT
MAY BEGIN TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY NEXT WEEK
AS THOSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR WAS REPORTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT ISSUANCE
TIME WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS PEAK HEATING APPROACHES,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THESE COULD NEAR THE TAF
SITES, BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW AT ANY OF THE SITES AT THIS
POINTS FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME. WHERE CONVECTION DOES OCCUR,
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS TO
25KT OR HIGHER ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE
TOWARD SUNSET/00Z WITH VALLEY FOG THE MAIN FEATURE BETWEEN 03Z
AND 13Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR OR LOWER AND LOW STRATUS WOULD ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. ANY
FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 13Z TO 14Z, WITH
CUMULUS IN THE 3 TO 5K FT RANGE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THESE STORMS, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...JP
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