538
FXUS63 KJKL 072016
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO END WEEK AND LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS CENTERED IN PORTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN AND THE SOUTHEAST. A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME
HEATING OF AN AIRMASS MAINLY INTO THE 80S WITH DEPENDS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 HAS YIELDED MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN
500 J/KG IN THE EAST NEARER TO THE WV BORDER TO ABOUT 1250 NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR/LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT BEGAN TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING APPEAR TO BE LARGELY A FACTOR FOR SUCCESSIVE GENERATIONS
OF DEVELOPMENT.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND ALSO BUILD TOWARD
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND ALSO
ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS. THE RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KY WHILE A
FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING
OVER WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION AND CUMULUS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VALLEY FOG FAVORED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PREVALENT THUS
FAR LAUREL COUNTY TO LESLIE COUNTY TO HARLAN COUNTY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF JKL. THIS MAY FAVOR A BIT MORE
FOG THAN VALLEY FOG IS THESE AREAS IF NOT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS IN SOME CASES.
A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CUMULUS AND SOME CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE
MORE SOUTHWESTERN OR WESTERN LOCATIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL RUNS ARE
IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH BY IF NOT BEFORE SUNSET ON FRIDAY AND WITH THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST,
VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED IN PART OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BORDER BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO SECTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EAST
OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER A SFC LOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE CENTERED IN MANITOBA WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WEST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY, GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
ACROSS EASTERN KY CLIMBING TO AROUND 593 OR 594 DM FOR LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO BUILD INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS WELL WITH
UPPER TROUGHING OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN
WAVE AND TREK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD ADVANCE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GENERAL TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY
CAPPED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH A GENERAL MINIMUM IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS. SOME SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT, WITH VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
AXIS OF TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS NEARER TO THE MS
VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING THAT BECOMES CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WITH LREF 00Z MEAN PW RISING TOWARD THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH
RANGE AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY, COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORED IN THIS SCENARIO.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO TO AND THEN EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO SECTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALSO SAG TOWARD THE OH RIVER/COMMONWEALTH AS
WELL. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS,
BUT CHANCES AT NIGHT SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN EARLIER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AND THE
FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO TEND TO COOL SLIGHTLY TOWARD
NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN KY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR WAS REPORTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT ISSUANCE
TIME WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH ISOLATED CONVECTION. AS PEAK HEATING APPROACHES,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THESE COULD NEAR THE TAF
SITES, BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW AT ANY OF THE SITES AT THIS
POINTS FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME. WHERE CONVECTION DOES OCCUR,
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS TO
25KT OR HIGHER ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE
TOWARD SUNSET/00Z WITH VALLEY FOG THE MAIN FEATURE BETWEEN 03Z
AND 13Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR OR LOWER AND LOW STRATUS WOULD ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. ANY
FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 13Z TO 14Z, WITH
CUMULUS IN THE 3 TO 5K FT RANGE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING PRIOR TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THESE STORMS, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page