005
FXUS63 KJKL 080801
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS ON MOST DAYS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO END THE WEEK AND
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
TENDRILS OF FOG ARE EXPANDING THROUGH THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN ~1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A
PROMINENT ~596 DAM HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGING
GENERALLY EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
EAST, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS NOTED WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA BUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. WELL UPSTREAM,
AN ~567 DAM CLOSED LOW IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS IT
RIDES OVER THE 500 MB HIGH FURTHER SOUTH. THAT LOW SUPPORTS AN
~996 MB SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA BLACK
HILLS/BADLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK INTO
THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR TODAY, THE WEAK 500 MB NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWEST US HIGH WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
OVER THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS. A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO
WRAP IN FROM THE WEAK UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND, COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER,
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN, AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT TO NEAR THE RED RIVER GORGE. FORCING IS VERY
LIMITED; HOWEVER, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE RESOLVES WEAK POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 500 MB SINKING SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS, MOST LOCALES
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER QUIET,
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING, AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. ON SATURDAY,
CONVECTION WILL BE EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
WEAK LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL CAP AND DRY AIR, WILL
INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PRIMARILY TOWARD THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AND IN THE VICINITY OF BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO LIFT/DISSIPATE
MID-MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING THENCEFORTH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE (~20% CHANCE), PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF
THE KY-15 CORRIDOR, BUT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA STAYS DRY. IT
WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FOR TONIGHT,
LOOK FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING
WITH FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
EVEN A FEW PLACES FLIRTING WITH 90F. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER
AND ALSO NEAR/ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED IN PART OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BORDER BETWEEN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO SECTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INITIALLY BE CENTERED IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EAST
OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER A SFC LOW SHOULD
INITIALLY BE CENTERED IN MANITOBA WITH A FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN WEST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY, GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
ACROSS EASTERN KY CLIMBING TO AROUND 593 OR 594 DM FOR LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO BUILD INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS AS WELL WITH
UPPER TROUGHING OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN OPEN
WAVE AND TREK TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD ADVANCE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GENERAL TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY
CAPPED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH A GENERAL MINIMUM IN
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS. SOME SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT, WITH VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT, UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
AXIS OF TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS NEARER TO THE MS
VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING THAT BECOMES CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WITH LREF 00Z MEAN PW RISING TOWARD THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH
RANGE AND LESS CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH GREATER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY TUESDAY, COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORED IN THIS SCENARIO.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO TO AND THEN EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY AND INTO SECTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALSO SAG TOWARD THE OH RIVER/COMMONWEALTH AS
WELL. A GENERAL DIURNAL PEAK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS,
BUT CHANCES AT NIGHT SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN EARLIER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AND THE
FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO TEND TO COOL SLIGHTLY TOWARD
NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN KY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE IMPACT IS
FORECAST AT TAF SITES, BUT IT'S NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY MORNING, LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS. UNLIKE RECENT DAYS, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
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