307
FXUS63 KJKL 081857
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM TODAY, A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS, PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF KY-15.
-THE WEEKEND LOOKS EVEN BETTER, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING IT
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR PLANS.
-A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK,
BRINGING A MORE HUMID PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CONUS, LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CONFINED MOSTLY TO TENNESSEE. HOWEVER, IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION, A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP BUT HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED,
LIKELY PRODUCING ONLY VIRGA OR LIGHT SPRINKLES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. THE CHANCE FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PERSIST, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COMBINATION OF
RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ANY
STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT ITS COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO THE GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE.
SATURDAY WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. THE
HIGH-PRESSURE DOME IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND RESULT IN EVEN MORE
LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH VALLEY FOG BEING EVEN MORE RESTRICTED DUE TO THE
PERSISTENTLY MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD IS A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH VERY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 500 HPA RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE, A 500 HPA LOW IS RIDING JUST NORTH OF
THE US-CANADA BORDER OVER PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ITS SURFACE
REFLECTION LIFTING TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TRAILS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE COMMONWEALTH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT A
TROPICAL AIR MASS BACK NORTH, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS THE LREF SHOWS MEAN PWATS SURGING BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE FRONT STALLING NORTHWEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FILLS AND EJECTS NORTHEAST, ORPHANING THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE
IN THE WEEK, BROAD RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, THOUGH DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE AND IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PWATS IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT, DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE OFF EACH DAY WITH
ACTIVITY STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
IN MORE SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR A DRY DAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AFTER MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS CLIMB BACK TO MUGGY LEVELS
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DURING THAT TIME, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RETREAT BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES TICK UP MODESTLY TO AROUND 70F FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
TERMINALS ARE SLOWLY MOVING FROM MVFR INTO VFR AS THE SURFACE
WARMS AND THE ESTABLISHED CU DECK RAISES TO VFR. TERMINALS WILL
STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, AS OVERNIGHT VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPS, TERMINALS COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN EITHER VSBY OR
CIG. KSME SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY TO FOG; HOWEVER, KLOZ, KJKL AND
KSYM COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CATEGORY AS FOG LIFTS OUT OF THE
RIVER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
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