408
FXUS63 KJKL 091845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING IT
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR PLANS.
-A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK,
BRINGING A MORE HUMID PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY.
-LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
ACROSS THE CONUS, THE WEATHER REMAINS ACTIVE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS. LOCALLY, A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM, CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, IS
MAINTAINING TRANQUIL WEATHER IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER,
DISTURBANCES ARE PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A SLOW-
MOVING SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE A SOUTHERN FEATURE IS
MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COMMONWEALTH, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, THOSE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE, THE SOUTHEASTERN
FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER, DUE TO LARGELY NONEXISTENT MOISTURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, THE POP IS MINIMAL BUT NOT ZERO. THE PLAINS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD, BUT A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ITS MOVEMENT, RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE SHIFT IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID-60S. RIVER VALLEY FOG, A
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONSTANT, WILL FORM OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, ITS COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MORE SHELTERED AND DEEPER VALLEYS DUE TO
DWINDLING MOISTURE.
SUNDAY WILL BRING VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS STEADY. EVEN LESS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW;
THEREFORE, POP CHANCES WILL BE NONEXISTENT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE MID-60S AND THE PRESENCE OF RIVER VALLEY FOG.
IN SUMMARY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND
TRANQUIL THIS WEEKEND, DESPITE OTHER ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS NEARBY.
DUE TO A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN STEADY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S. OVERNIGHT, LIMITED FOG IS EXPECTED IN
DEEPER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A 500 HPA RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A STRONGER HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS FOUND UPSTREAM, STRETCHING
FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN ~1003 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PRESSES EASTWARD AND FILLS, LEAVING A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
FROM THE TROUGH/FORMER UPPER LOW PASSES FAR TO OUR NORTH, LEAVING
THE COLD FRONT ABANDONED AND STALLING OUT NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECT A TROPICAL AIR MASS BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ON MONDAY (THE LREF SHOWS PWATS SURGING
BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON). THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL FAVOR A RISING THREAT
OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC DOES BUILD/RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COAST MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY,
ALMOST CERTAINLY SPARKING ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. THE MODELED
ENVIRONMENT STILL DOES NOT FAVOR ANY ORGANIZED, STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH SBCAPE
VALUES AND HIGH PWATS (1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES) COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
IN SENSIBLE TERMS, LOOK FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO CLIMB BACK TO
MUGGY LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WHILE THE DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY HOTTER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO AROUND 70F BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
TERMINALS ARE SLOWLY MOVING FROM MVFR INTO VFR AS THE SURFACE
WARMS AND THE ESTABLISHED CU DECK RAISES TO VFR. TERMINALS WILL
STAY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT VALLEY
FOG COULD SNEAK INTO A SITE AND CAUSE A REDUCTION IN CATEGORY BUT
CHANCES ARE SMALL AND OPTED TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
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