028
FXUS63 KJKL 110548
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY AS HUMIDITY RISES.
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AND
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
-LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS WEEK AND COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE THREAT LINGERS INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE AGAIN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. HOWEVER, THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
VALLEY FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD DAWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH A COUPLE
LINGERING IN PULASKI COUNTY. MOST OF THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS
DISSIPATED AS WELL OTHER THAN A FEW AREAS NEAR OR WEST OF I-75 TO
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS WE
NEAR AND PASS SUNSET WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINATE.
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY
FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES THAT WERE RUNNING A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GENERAL, WITH SOME
EASTERN VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT MORE QUICKLY AS THEY START TO
DECOUPLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A PERSISTENT DOME SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE
EASTERN CONUS, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, SEPARATE DISTURBANCES
EXIST, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS INHIBITING THEIR MOVEMENT
AND IMPACTS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR,
BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW (LESS THAN 20%). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR, WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING IN RIVER VALLEYS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED BY THE
STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW, DRAWING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY AND RAISE THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET, AND THE CLEARING
SKIES WILL AGAIN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
A TROUGH, CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA, IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS PROJECTED
TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND A STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PREVENT THE TROUGH FROM SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH. THIS FRONTAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS, A RISK REFLECTED IN THE WPCS MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON BOTH DAYS. THE GROUND IS CURRENTLY DRY, WHICH
WILL HELP TO MITIGATE IMMEDIATE FLOOD CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF ANY
AREAS EXPERIENCE REPEATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, LOCALIZED HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES COULD ARISE.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
POSITIONED NEAR THE AREA; AS A RESULT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN EXPECTED MID-WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, AND RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR WAS OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE. FOG IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SHELTERED MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS BUT IS NOT FAVORED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES. ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. MORE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND
ADJACENT TO THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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