623
FXUS63 KJKL 031814
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
214 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
THE LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
CONVECTION IS STARTING BUBBLE UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS DEPARTED INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AT UPDATE TIME. RADAR SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
PRIMARILY OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN, AHEAD OF A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD EXTEND INTO
THE HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER AN AREA-WIDE LULL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HEADING INTO THE
EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
DID A QUICK LITTLE FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
AND THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. A
SECOND SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
CANADA. LOCALLY, THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
EVANSVILLE SURFACE LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TENNESSEE
STATE LINE.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS PERTURBATION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND THEIR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF
1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS OR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ONCE
THE SYSTEM PASSES, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING TODAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING THAT
NORTHERNMOST SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES IMPROVE TO MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE RANGES. MUCAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1,500 J/KG AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EBWD
VALUES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PEA-SIZED HAIL, A THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPCS DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK. LASTLY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD BE EFFICIENT, WITH
INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
THE FIRST OCCURRING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID-70S ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NIGHTS MILD, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE START OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY THE FORECAST
AREA BEING STRADDLED BETWEEN TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES: THE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THURSDAYS DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, BUT AS ANOTHER
PERTURBATION TRACKS THROUGH A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FROPA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL FAVOR CAA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE REGARDING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THAT TIME.
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT
WILL BRING A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SEASONAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID-50S. BEHIND THE FINAL FRONT, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AT TAF ISSUANCE. SUFFICIENT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A PROB30 MENTION. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF
VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY TAF SITES WAS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY,
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AND POTENTIALLY PERSISTENT
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS, EXCEPT LOCALLY GUSTY NEAR CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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