066
FXUS63 KJKL 031850
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
THE LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
CONVECTION IS STARTING BUBBLE UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY SCATTERED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS DEPARTED INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AT UPDATE TIME. RADAR SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING,
PRIMARILY OVER THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN, AHEAD OF A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD EXTEND INTO
THE HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY RIVERS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER AN AREA-WIDE LULL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HEADING INTO THE
EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
DID A QUICK LITTLE FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS
AND THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE, WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ORIENTED SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX. A
SECOND SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
CANADA. LOCALLY, THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
EVANSVILLE SURFACE LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TENNESSEE
STATE LINE.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS PERTURBATION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED, SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND THEIR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF
1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS OR POSSIBLY A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ONCE
THE SYSTEM PASSES, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING TODAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING THAT
NORTHERNMOST SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES IMPROVE TO MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE RANGES. MUCAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1,500 J/KG AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH EBWD
VALUES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PEA-SIZED HAIL, A THREAT
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPCS DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK. LASTLY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD BE EFFICIENT, WITH
INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
THE FIRST OCCURRING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID-70S ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NIGHTS MILD, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
A 990MB SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY, PLACING THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN CONUS IN A TROUGHING
PATTERN. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL FORM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND FOLLOW THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY, PROVIDING ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM: IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. AMPLE SBCAPE WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KY
WHERE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES PLACE A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE RELATIVELY STRONG, BUT UPSCALE STORM GROWTH WILL BE HAMPERED BY
LACK LUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. LUCKILY, THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
BRIEF AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AFTER SUNSET. RAIN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA EVENTUALLY OCCURRING SATURDAY
MORNING.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WILL BE EVIDENT NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FORMS OVER EASTERN CONUS. BY WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025
TERMINALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALL TERMINALS HAVE A PROB30 FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CREATE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. ONCE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF, TERMINALS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LASTLY, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...VORST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page