038
FXUS63 KJKL 041816
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE;
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE;
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
SPIN-UP TORNADO.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AFTER THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CLEAR THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN MOST PERSISTENT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THAT HAS HELPED
MINIMIZE INSTABILITY, AND KEEP MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OVER TENNESSEE. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING, CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF CINCINNATI SOUTHWARD TO NEAR BOWLING
GREEN. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED UNLESS BETTER DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT MID-MORNING WITH
THE REMNANT QLCS DECAYS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOSTLY EXIT BY 11 AM TO NOON. BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY, A COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM NEAR CINCINNATI TO
LAND OF THE LAKES AT UPDATE TIME, WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPARK A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION ABOUT THE TIME FLOW ALOFT REACHES ITS
MAXIMUM SPEED (RESULTING IN EBWD OF 30 KNOTS OR BETTER).
OVERALL DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUD COVER, BUT
ODDS ARE BETTER FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY RECOVERY OVER THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING MONITORED
CLOSELY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A QUICK REFRESH OF THE FORECAST GRIDS TO TAKE IN THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE AND INCORPORATE RADAR TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE LOW FROM WHICH THE FRONT EXTENDS IS
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO, AND THE FRONT IS ARCHED SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE CWA AND BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY,
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS TOWARD THE CWA.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH THE CWA, BRINGING THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAPE AND
SHEAR VALUES IMPROVE TO MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE RANGES. SBCAPE AND
MUCAPE ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1,500 J/KG, WITH EBWD VALUES
APPROACHING 45 KNOTS, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PEA-SIZED HAIL, A THREAT HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
SPCS DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK. LASTLY, SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD BE EFFICIENT, WITH INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL PERTURBATION TRACKS THROUGH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION. THIS
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SPC HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE CWA IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, AS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS:
THE FIRST OCCURRING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND A
SECOND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MILD, WITH HIGHS STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NIGHTS MILD, WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE FROPA USHERS HIGH PRESSURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL FAVOR CAA. FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEGINNING
MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID-50S, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA AT TAF
ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARE
ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CINCINNATI DOWN TO
BOWLING GREEN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE,
WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION IN THE TAFS, UNTIL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WANES THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL, MOIST WAA MAY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS IN ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED SPOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
CONVECTION.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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