183
FXUS63 KJKL 051905
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE; DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT
LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.75 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES OUT AHEAD OF THIS
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON -
THOUGH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WHERE SOME MORNING SHOWERS HAD LINGERED. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF ANY AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS AFTERBIIB AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE WELL ALIGNED
WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT VERY DEEP AND LARGE TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND POINTS NORTH. AMID THIS GYRE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS SENDS 5H HEIGHT FALLS SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH
AMPLE MID-LEVEL ENERGY NEARBY - TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE DEEPER INTO THE
WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF MID LEVEL ENERGY SOUTH TOWARD THE
BLUEGRASS STATE OCCURS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY - THOUGH
THE CORE OF IT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LAKES THEMSELVES. THE
VERY SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTS USING THE NBM
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY JUST TO TWEAK THE POPS BY ADDING SOME
DETAILS AND TIMING FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND
NEAR TERM TWEAKING PER RADAR TRENDS. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LIKELY STORMY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEATING OF THE
DAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE CAPE VALUES TO NEAR 2K J/KG BY THE TIME THE
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. PER THE
WIND FIELDS THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO INTO
THE NIGHT BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS UPSCALE AND PROBABLY EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE LINEAR
WITH TIME. WITH PWS AT SEASONABLE HIGHS ANY TRAINING COULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE INTO SATURDAY YIELDING
A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FOR SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, SATURDAY
- ENHANCED BY LIFT GENERATED BY THE NEARBY ENTRANCE REGION OF A
3H JET STREAK. LOOK FOR A FURTHER RETREAT TO THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME ENHANCED TERRAIN DISTINCTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTING THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS CONCENSUS AND NEAR TERM
RADAR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH ASIDE FROM SOME
EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTION APPLIED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
BEHIND SATURDAY’S COLD FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE THE MAJOR
HIGHLIGHT IN THE FORECAST. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AS
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE
SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TAFS ARE VFR AT ISSUANCE THOUGH EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO THE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM THREAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW FOR MOST SITES - LIKELY SPARING SYM
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TERMINALS WILL FALL INTO A COMBINATION
OF IFR TO MVFR AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN SETTLES SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTION WILL BRING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS - LIKELY STRONGEST THIS EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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