577
FXUS63 KJKL 060525
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
- A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE; DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT
LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING, BUT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HIGH WATER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, AND WHERE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL
OCCUR.
THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE, SO JUST
PRIMARILY WENT WITH A SIMPLE REFRESH OF THE FORECAST, USING THE
LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE INITIALIZATION TO THE HOURLY
FORECASTS IN THE GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
DROPPED IN OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THE WATCH IS ALLOWED TO CONTINUE
WHERE THE MAIN LEADING LINE OF STORMS IS STILL PUSHING THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
UNFOLDING SEVERE EVENT HAS BEEN LARGELY A WIND THREAT, WITH A
SECONDARY MARGINAL HAIL THREAT (1" HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED IN
PULASKI COUNTY). MODELS STILL SUGGEST MORE PRECIP BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, AND AT PRESENT A HIGH POP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 510 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO GO UP-- ABOUT AN HOUR AHEAD
OF WHAT WAS FORECAST. HAVE SPED UP THE FCST DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VERY NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SUNNY SKIES OUT AHEAD OF THIS
PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON -
THOUGH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE FOUND IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WHERE SOME MORNING SHOWERS HAD LINGERED. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WHILE WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF ANY AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHOW LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE WELL ALIGNED
WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT VERY DEEP AND LARGE TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND POINTS NORTH. AMID THIS GYRE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH ITS SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS SENDS 5H HEIGHT FALLS SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH
AMPLE MID-LEVEL ENERGY NEARBY - TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROUGHING WILL BE THE RULE DEEPER INTO THE
WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER PUSH OF MID LEVEL ENERGY SOUTH TOWARD THE
BLUEGRASS STATE OCCURS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY - THOUGH
THE CORE OF IT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LAKES THEMSELVES. THE
VERY SMALL MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTS USING THE NBM
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY JUST TO TWEAK THE POPS BY ADDING SOME
DETAILS AND TIMING FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND
NEAR TERM TWEAKING PER RADAR TRENDS. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LIKELY STORMY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEATING OF THE
DAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE CAPE VALUES TO NEAR 2K J/KG BY THE TIME THE
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING. PER THE
WIND FIELDS THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO INTO
THE NIGHT BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS UPSCALE AND PROBABLY EVOLVE TO BECOME MORE LINEAR
WITH TIME. WITH PWS AT SEASONABLE HIGHS ANY TRAINING COULD BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE INTO SATURDAY YIELDING
A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FOR SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, SATURDAY
- ENHANCED BY LIFT GENERATED BY THE NEARBY ENTRANCE REGION OF A
3H JET STREAK. LOOK FOR A FURTHER RETREAT TO THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SOME ENHANCED TERRAIN DISTINCTION.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTING THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS AND NEAR TERM
RADAR TRENDS. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH ASIDE FROM SOME
EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTION APPLIED TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY TO START THE
PERIOD, BENEATH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
MIDWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND RETREAT
NORTH WITH TIME, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS COAST BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. THE SCENARIO WILL KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY, BUT ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT RISE WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
LOST, RESULTING IN INSOLATION MODIFYING OUR AIR MASS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. THIS WAS PRODUCING LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS,
WITH LARGELY VFR OUTSIDE OF PRECIP. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT, BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
DIE DOWN FOR A TIME DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY IFR) ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP, LASTING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
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