453
FXUS63 KJKL 060847
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.40" OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STRONGER
CONVECTION OCCURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
IS TIED TO AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EXITS LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT, BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORTUNATELY, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, AND THE THREAT
OF HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, BUT WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S. DUE TO EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE THE MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF
THE FORECAST. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE,
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, THE FRONT WILL BE DRY, BUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
IS TO BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID-50S, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEPARTED TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH WILL MOST
LIKELY MEAN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMATION ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TOWARDS OR AFTER 06Z/SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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