731
FXUS63 KJKL 061409
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1009 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.40" OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STRONGER
CONVECTION OCCURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING AND IS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FORECAST HAS BEEN REFRESHED WITH LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS AND
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
JUST A QUICK LITTLE FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS BOUNDARY
IS TIED TO AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING, SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND EXITS LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT, BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
FORTUNATELY, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, AND THE THREAT
OF HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES WILL BE MINIMAL.
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, BUT WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S. DUE TO EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE THE MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF
THE FORECAST. POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE,
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY COLD FRONT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, THE FRONT WILL BE DRY, BUT A
TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
IS TO BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID-50S, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TERMINALS ARE A COMBINATION OF IFR, MVFR AND VFR WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER 21Z AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. LASTLY, WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT
CONVECTION COULD BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST
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