952
FXUS63 KJKL 071745
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY
AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES TO THE DAY'S HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK WHICH IS NOW RAPIDLY ERODING.
THEREFORE, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY,
THOUGH IT HAS LIFTED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS. THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING AND THINNING
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A DEVELOPING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD. HOURLY T/TD FORECAST
HAS BEEN BROUGHT INTO LINE WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS; AND THE SKY
COVER WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON, TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ANTICIPATED EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD. OTHERWISE, CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE HIGH-
PRESSURE DOME’S INFLUENCE CAN BE FELT HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY, AS
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE PRESENT. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
REMAINING FROM YESTERDAY’S RAIN. DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG,
THE ENTIRE AREA WAS PLACED UNDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING.
A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-
70S AND INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOLER, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO POSSIBLY GET A
FEW DEGREES COLDER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS FLOW SHIFTS TO A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY
WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE
80S FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT LARGELY INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AREA-WIDE AT ISSUANCE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES. A HIGH-BASE CUMULUS FIELD IS
DEVELOPING AT ABOUT 5-6KFT AGL AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL EVENING WHEN
IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCALES WITH LOCALLY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
WHILE A FEW WISPS OF FOG CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT THE TAF
SITES, THE FOG SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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