488
FXUS63 KJKL 091838
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
238 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT
ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
REMOVED THE MORNING VALLEY FOG FROM THE FORECAST GIVEN SATELLITE
SHOWS THE LAST OF THE FOG BURNING OFF CURRENTLY. ALSO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. MODELS SHOW THIS CLOUD DECK SCATTERING OR BURNING
OFF TOWARDS MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE VA AND TN BORDERS OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AT THIS TIME. VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN
PRESENT, BUT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT OR SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT SHORTLY AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY IN ALL AREAS BY THE 9 TO 10 AM TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
FOR HIGHS TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO OH VALLEY TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND ALSO ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST,
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BC SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO GA WHILE A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST
EXTENDS INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE GULF
COAST AND THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES INT PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TN. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF OF I-64 IN THE RIVERS, FORKS, AND MAIN TRIBUTARIES OF THE KY,
CUMBERLAND, AND BIG SANDY BASIN. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE IN A FEW
SPOTS AT PRESENT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS UPPER TROUGHING
PERSISTS FROM NEAR HUDSON AND JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN THE RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC CENTERED EAST
AND NORTHEASTER OF BERMUDA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT AXIS OF
WHICH SHIFTS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO HIGH PLAINS TO PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS THE
AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING A BIT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST INTO
EASTERN KY THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH
SHIFTS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EASTERN KY. VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT
AND DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE OR THROUGH
THE 9 AM TO 10 EDT TIMEFRAME THIS MORNING. WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ABOUT 3 OR SO DEGREES ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO MONDAY. VALLEY FOG IS
AGAIN FAVORED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
VALLEYS FOR LOW WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH
INCLUDING EASTERN KY BUT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOULD
PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BUT ALSO MOISTURE DEPRIVED SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND OH VALLEY
FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND NEAR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRAZING OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE POPS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THIS COMES WITHIN THE TIME WINDOW
OF MOST CAMS. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THE VAST MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE STEADILY YET GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUAL GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WHILE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
CONSISTENTLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOWS MODEL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL PATTERNS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY, OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, WILL JUST LET
THE NBM RIDE FOR THE POP FORECAST, WHICH NOW KEEPS ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BELOW THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR MENTION IN
THE POINT-AND-CLICK AND TEXT FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
FOG WILL AGAIN BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MANY OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
IT IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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