321
FXUS63 KJKL 100624 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY FORECAST PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND ALSO WENT WITH A BIT MORE AREAL
EXTENT OF FOG IN VALLEY AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
BETTER REFLECT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUCH AS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
RGB.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, AND THE LATEST OBS ARE AGAIN BLENDED IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
DIURNAL FAIR WX CU LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ARE
DECLINING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO PEAKED AND ARE BEGINNING THEIR
SLIDE. LATEST OBS ARE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
LATE TODAY, SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
EASTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN OUR DRY
AIR MASS. IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD,
BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME. ALOFT, FLOW IS WEAK AND A SIZABLE BUT WEAK
TROUGH IS SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY.
THE TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND BE OVER OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS, BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAILY INSOLATION AND A LACK OF
MEANINGFUL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SLOW
WARM-UP AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GRAZING OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OR TWO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE POPS INCREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THIS COMES WITHIN THE TIME WINDOW
OF MOST CAMS. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED WOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THE VAST MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WHILE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE STEADILY YET GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUAL GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WHILE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
CONSISTENTLY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHOWS MODEL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL PATTERNS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY, OR WHETHER THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW, GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, WILL JUST LET
THE NBM RIDE FOR THE POP FORECAST, WHICH NOW KEEPS ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BELOW THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR MENTION IN
THE POINT-AND-CLICK AND TEXT FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE, VALLEY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND IS IFR OR WORSE IN SOME AREAS PER AWOS OBS AND
REGIONAL KY MESONET CAMERAS. THIS FOG MAY BRING REDUCTIONS AS LOW
AS LIFR OR VLIFR FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. AT
THIS POINT, THE 5 TAF SITES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. OTHERWISE,
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE 13Z TO 14Z
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS
ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN FOG FOR VALLEY NON TAF
SITE AREAS BY THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
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