830
FXUS63 KJKL 101843
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
243 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. THE LAST OF THE
FOG HAS BURNED OFF IN THE LAST HALF-HOUR IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. VALLEY FOG STILL LINGERS ALONG AREA RIVERS, LARGER
CREEKS, AND LAKES BUT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT BY THE 9 TO 10 AM EDT TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL MODERATION TREND, LIKELY REACHING ABOUT 2
TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY/WESTERN QUEBEC
VICINITY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WERE
UPSTREAM OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY/EASTERN KY WITH ONE WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN KY/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR TO IA. THIS TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN UPPER
RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC CENTERED NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS/PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH WERE GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY, A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURES
SPLIT IS IN PLACE WITH VALLEYS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AROUND 50
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S OBSERVED ON THE RIDGES. VALLEY FOG HAS AGAIN
DEVELOPED AND MAY BE DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS. IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT, THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE TRAVERSED THE REGION.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK
GRADUALLY EAST AND ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF QUEBEC. AT THE SFC, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, BUT SOME GUIDANCE HAS
SOME WEAK SHOWERS/SPOTTY QPF OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KY AND SOME AS
FAR EAST AS THE I-75 CORRIDOR OR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION LATE.
SOME SPRINKLES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA, BUT AT THIS POINT APPEAR MORE
PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL KY. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON
THURSDAY, SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS SOME
OF THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LIGHT SPOTTY QPF OR SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA. FOR NOW KEPT POPS NEAR THE NBM PPI VALUES FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES FOR THE SOUTHWEST WITH POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT THERE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST OF EASTERN KY ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD END ANY CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
LATE.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN AND WITH ANY CLOUDS
ALSO CLEARING OUT A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL
INCREASE, BUT STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS
EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE,
BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS THAT ARE A
LITTLE TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLES. IN LINE WITH THE NBM, WILL BE RAISING
POPS UP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64, TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY RISING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY PERSIST IN THE 50S, WITH LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED VALLEYS ON THE WARMEST NIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOG WILL AGAIN BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MANY OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
IT IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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