764
FXUS63 KJKL 102013
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
LATE TODAY A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINED NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS, CONTINUING TO GIVE US RELATIVELY DRY AIR. ALOFT, A
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THERE IS SLIGHT MID LEVEL
COOLING BENEATH THE TROUGH. THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION CAPPED BELOW 500 MB OVER CENTRAL
KY. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT NOTHING HAS
MEASURED AT ANY KY MESONET SITES YET. AS THE REGIME SHIFTS EAST,
THE STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN THE GFS AND SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE MORE MOIST
NAM LOOKS LIKE IT'S VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE DRIER GFS TODAY, AND
IN LIGHT OF THIS, SPRINKLES ARE INCLUDED THE FORECAST FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES PAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FINISH OUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS
EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE,
BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTS CONDITIONS THAT ARE A
LITTLE TOO DRY FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A
STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLES. IN LINE WITH THE NBM, WILL BE RAISING
POPS UP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64, TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY RISING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY PERSIST IN THE 50S, WITH LOWER 60S OUTSIDE OF
SHELTERED VALLEYS ON THE WARMEST NIGHTS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOG WILL AGAIN BRING IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS TO MANY OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
IT IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
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