070
FXUS63 KJKL 111856
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR TODAY AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE POORLY FORECAST BY MODELS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATE MORNING
UPDATE EXTRAPOLATES THIS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY SOUTH WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS (CUMULUS AND
TOWERING CUMULUS) DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
MODELS ARE PERFORMING POORLY WITH REGARDS TO THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF. USED
PENCIL EDITS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS
WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF QUEBEC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TO OH VALLEY. FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS
CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AN
UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/ SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGING NORTH ACROSS SECTION OF THE
HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS
VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WAS
WORKING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IT HAVE MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT WITH BREAKS AND TIMES OF CLEARING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LARGER CREEKS, AREA RIVERS, AND LAKES PARTICULARLY WHERE CLEARING
OR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES HAVE GRADUALLY MOVED FROM CENTRAL KY TO NORTHERN MIDDLE
TN AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAVING PASSED ACROSS SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES
TODAY FOR LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE TN BORDER. OTHERWISE, A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY SHOULD BE THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ONCE VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND DISSIPATES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY.
A TREND OF RISING HEIGHTS IS ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN KY TONIGHT
WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS AND VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, AND POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS FOR
THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS RESIDING BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING
TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS TIME WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW THE
15 PERCENT THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL POINT-
AND-CLICK AND TEXT FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW 90-DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE TYPICALLY-PRONE
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS BROUGHT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING FROM NEAR KSYM TO KJKL TO THE VA BORDER EAST TO NEAR
KSJS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATING, MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER RIVER VALLEY
FOG HAS DEVELOPED WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OR WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY KSME AFFECTED. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, AND THEREAFTER, ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS IFR IF NOT LOCALLY LOWER IN VALLEY
BETWEEN 03Z AND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THAT FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AFFECT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP
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