004
FXUS63 KJKL 112340
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEAR THOSE LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
OUR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS ONLY
AROUND 50 IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, WHILE VALUES HAVE CREPT UP
TO AROUND 60 IN OUR SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
PASSING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA, AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
MINIMAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHICH HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST, IT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO BRING AN AGITATED CU FIELD WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS EXTREMELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIP. ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE. WILL LOOK FOR THE CU, SPRINKLES, AND
SHOWERS TO DRY UP THIS EVENING AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE TROUGH
DEPARTS. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE SO ISOLATED THAT CARRYING
A 20% POP WOULD BE OVERKILL, AND NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES IS
CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL REINFORCE OUR AIR
MASS, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MAKE A COMEBACK IN OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRY TO BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD US, BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO AN EXTENT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IMPINGES
ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGH'S EFFECTS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AND
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL MANAGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY. THE END
RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND SIZABLE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, AND POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS FOR
THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS RESIDING BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING
TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY THIS TIME WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW THE
15 PERCENT THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL POINT-
AND-CLICK AND TEXT FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW 90-DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE TYPICALLY-PRONE
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR TAFS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
POTENTIALLY CREATE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLOZ AND KSME. A
TEMPO IS IN PLACE TO COVER THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, FOG WILL
BURN OFF AND TAFS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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