700
FXUS63 KJKL 121829
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND REMAIN NEAR THAT
LEVEL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LONGWAVE
RIDGE TO THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS, AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE THUS EXPECTED OTHER THAN PASSING MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL RISING TREND, BOTH FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE ITS TREND OF DEVELOPING IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND BURNING OFF/DISSIPATING WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS OF
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A STAGNANT YET TRANQUIL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE A
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG AND ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
CONTINUE UNDER A WEAK NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES. MODELS DIFFER A BIT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TUESDAY, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MODEL SYSTEMS TAKING A MORE INLAND TRACK
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING ABSORBED BACK WITHIN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OTHER ENSEMBLE MODEL SYSTEMS KEEP THE CUT-OFF
LOW ALONG/NEAR THE COASTLINE BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MORE INLAND TRACK WILL BRING EASTERN KENTUCKY MORE
WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AND RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DIURNAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE
BORDER AREAS. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY KEEP A TRANQUIL AND DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE 03Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME. FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE, HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT KSME, INDICATING A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY, THOUGH SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME IF FOG OCCURS. WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
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