853
FXUS63 KJKL 131406
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1006 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR SHOWERS.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE FROM
DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS THAT CAN MAKE IT THROUGH A RATHER DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS, SO DID KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
AS A HEDGE.
FOR SUNDAY, INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL MOSTLY BELOW THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE DRY BUT THERE IS A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS
TIME. LINGER VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS FROM THE DELMARVA
VICINITY TO FL WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TREKKING FROM THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ARE MOVING AROUND UPPER RIDGING
THAT EXTENDED FROM MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS
AND UPPER MS VALLEYS TO MANITOBA AND INTO THE UPPER TROUGH. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDED EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY, SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT EXPECT FOR A FEW PASSING CIRRUS. VALLEY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS, RIVERS, AND AREA LAKES. DENSE
FOG WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT K1A6 AND CAN BE INFERRED IN A FEW
OTHER LOCATIONS FROM KY MESONET CAMERAS AND OTHER WEATHER CAMERAS
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 5 AM RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN
THE VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON THE LOWER COALFIELD
RIDGES. THE THERMAL BELT APPEARED TO ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR THE PIKE
COUNTY MESONET STATION ELEVATION NEAR 2770 FEET.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, FOLLOWING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHTS
THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH SOME HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, A GENERAL
INCREASE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
VICINITY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS MORE QUICKLY EAST TO THE MARITIMES TO
NORTHEAST AND TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO FL AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EVEN AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST LATE SUNDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD PERSIST FROM
SD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WESTERN KY AREA.
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY, SOME CONVECTION IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR PER SEVERAL CAM RUNS AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR THE OH RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
AS IT NEARS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TONIGHT AND PERHAPS LINGERING AS LATE
AS SUNDAY MORNING. A LOT OF THIS MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST SOME SPRINKLES
APPEAR PROBABLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM REACHING AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NEAR OR
NORTHWEST OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR HIGHS AND ASSUMING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT AT LEAST A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP. ALSO, ASSUMING ENOUGH CLEARING/BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST
INTO THE KY AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MARITIMES
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS FROM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVING MOVED OUT OF
THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM BC INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. AT THE SFC, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS TO CE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SD TO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY/WESTERN KY AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINGERING
TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY
WHILE UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FORM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST, THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IN THE PLAINS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD MANITOBA TO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND 750 MB
SHOULD OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EVOLVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN KY. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SHOULD REMAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING OR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EACH NIGHT SHOULD FAVOR A SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION BOTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE RECENT ECMWF RUNS TAKING THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS RUNS HAVE THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST NEARER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE GFS SCENARIO, THE AXIS OF UPPER RIDGING
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS NEARS EASTERN KY AT MIDWEEK. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE FROM THE HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO AREA SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS/PLAINS AT MIDWEEK. DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHTS LEAD TO
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND
THE ECMWF SCENARIO COULD EVEN LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN NEAR
THE VA BORDER. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NBM PPI/POPS THAT
ARE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE,
BROUGHT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE VA/KY BORDER FROM NEAR
BLACK MTN TO PIKE COUNTY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO, THE NBM TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN BETWEEN
THE WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AND THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ASSUMING SOME CLEARING BOTH NIGHTS, SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS AS WELL AS VALLEY FOG WOULD BE
FAVORED.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT POTENTIALLY INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER AT MIDWEEK DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE AREA VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL, GUIDANCE
HAS THE 500 MB TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY TO END THE
PERIOD. WITH A SFC SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO OH
VALLEY REGION AS WELL. THE NBM HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE TO INTRODUCE WHAT MAY BE
THE NEXT, ALBEIT SMALL, CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FOR EASTERN KY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT FAVORED WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT DOMINATING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME WERE VFR AT ISSUANCE
TIME. VALLEY FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
AND DISSIPATE IN SOME AREAS. A FEW NON TAF SITE LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KI35, K1A6, AND KBYL IN THE CUMBERLAND BASIN HAVE REPORTED DENSE
FOG AND VLIFR RECENTLY. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
14Z, WITH ALL SITES RETURNING TO VFR, THOUGH SOME VALLEY AREAS/NON
TAF LOCATIONS MAY AGAIN EXPERIENCE MVFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS AFTER
THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. SOME CONVECTION, LIKELY LACKING LIGHTING
COULD AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 22Z AS WELL, BUT
HAVE OPTED NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAFS FOR THAT AT THIS
POINT. OUTSIDE OF ANY STRAY CONVECTION, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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