644
FXUS63 KJKL 141942
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE AS A LARGE DOUBLE-BARRELED STACKED LOW
STRENGTHENS AND GROWS IN SIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE THEN MEANDERS IN PLACE AS A SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.
MEANWHILE, A NARROW MID-LEVELHIGH RIDGE CONTINUES, EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
OUR TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LESS RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, AND THIS WILL MORESO BE THE CASE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE UPSTREAM POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CLIPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO
THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, A RIDGE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE SHORELINE BEFORE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 2KFT, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING COOLER IN
THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS IN THE 70S OR EVEN AS LOW AS UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO MID 50S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST COAST LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING
DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S. POPS REMAIN BELOW 10% TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE WAVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD IN TIME FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POPS <5% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
THE RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPSTREAM WAVE BEGIN TO DIVERGE
STARTING THURSDAY, WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED REGARDING
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS AS IT APPROACHES
APPALACHIA THIS WEEKEND. TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING THAT
BEGINS THURSDAY MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE,
PUSHING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING
OF THE WAVE'S ARRIVAL, POPS REMAIN IN THE 25-30% RANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
TIME RANGE TO WATCH FOR NEXT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A DEVELOPING DIURNAL CU FIELD AND LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. THIS DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, AND THE
CLEARING TREND FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. FOG
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION RESULTANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MVFR-OR-WORSE
VISIBILITY THRESHOLDS AT LOZ AND SME, BUT THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH EACH MODEL RUN. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, FUTURE TAF PACKAGES MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADDITIONAL
FROM GROUP FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT THESE
TWO SITES. AFTER ANY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF TOMORROW MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AREA-WIDE. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST TOMORROW, BUT A DOMINANT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 6SM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...MARCUS
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