724
FXUS63 KJKL 150540 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
RAISED RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE
FAVORED MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEY LOCATES, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. GIVEN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG RECENT HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE AS A LARGE DOUBLE-BARRELED STACKED LOW
STRENGTHENS AND GROWS IN SIZE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE THEN MEANDERS IN PLACE AS A SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.
MEANWHILE, A NARROW MID-LEVELHIGH RIDGE CONTINUES, EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
OUR TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LESS RIDGE-VALLEY SPLITS IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, AND THIS WILL MORESO BE THE CASE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE UPSTREAM POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CLIPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO
THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, A RIDGE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE SHORELINE BEFORE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 2KFT, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING COOLER IN
THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS IN THE 70S OR EVEN AS LOW AS UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO MID 50S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST COAST LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING
DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S. POPS REMAIN BELOW 10% TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE WAVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD IN TIME FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POPS <5% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
THE RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPSTREAM WAVE BEGIN TO DIVERGE
STARTING THURSDAY, WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED REGARDING
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS AS IT APPROACHES
APPALACHIA THIS WEEKEND. TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING THAT
BEGINS THURSDAY MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE,
PUSHING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING
OF THE WAVE'S ARRIVAL, POPS REMAIN IN THE 25-30% RANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
TIME RANGE TO WATCH FOR NEXT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT. FOG COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY
RESULTANT VSBY REDUCTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. AFTER ANY
VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
AREA-WIDE. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FAVORED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE EAST, BUT A DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AND VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE
6SM.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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