435
FXUS63 KJKL 151805
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ASIDE FROM INCORPORATING THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUNNING THOSE TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEXT AND RADIO PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THE CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STRETCHING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. ON
SATELLITE, THE FOG IS SHOWING UP PRETTY WELL - CONFINED TO THE
NARROW RIVER VALLEYS. THESE CONDITIONS ALSO SET UP A DECENT NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ESTABLISHED AS READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE MID
50S IN THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO MID 60S IN THE THERMAL BELT
SPOTS ON THE HILLS. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S MOST PLACES.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE WELL ALIGNED
WITH EACH OTHER ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY AND TROUGHING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME THE SOUTHEAST TROUGHING WILL SLIP A BIT
CLOSER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY PEAKING TONIGHT BEFORE IT STARTS TO
PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STUCK MID
LEVEL ENERGY TO BE AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE SMALL MODEL SPREAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD SUPPORTS USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT
FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY
JUST TO TWEAK THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BY ADDING SOME DETAILS FROM THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF OUR WARM WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO ALLOW FOR A FEW POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR NIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS NIGHT HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND MAINLY JUST SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT HAVE KEPT THE WX DRY FOR THE
AREA, FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD - AWAY FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADJUSTING THE POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS CONSENSUS AND KEEPING JUST
ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH ASIDE FROM
ENHANCING A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON THIS SHIFT WERE TO
PUSH THE BETTER POP CHANCES BACK ANOTHER 24 HOURS - TO THE
WEEKEND. DID ALSO CONTINUE THE TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS FOR
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
THE UPSTREAM POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CLIPS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING AS IT IS
ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A RIDGE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SHORELINE BEFORE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 2KFT, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING COOLER IN
THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS IN THE 70S OR EVEN AS LOW AS UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO MID 50S. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST COAST LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BRINGING
DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S. POPS REMAIN BELOW 10% TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE WAVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD IN TIME FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POPS <5% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER
THE RIDGE.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPSTREAM WAVE BEGIN TO DIVERGE
STARTING THURSDAY, WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED REGARDING
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS AS IT APPROACHES
APPALACHIA THIS WEEKEND. TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING THAT
BEGINS THURSDAY MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE,
PUSHING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING
OF THE WAVE'S ARRIVAL, POPS REMAIN IN THE 25-30% RANGE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
TIME RANGE TO WATCH FOR NEXT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A DIURNAL
CU FIELD IS VISIBLE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
REGION, AS ARE A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. AFTER SUNSET, CLEARING
SKIES ARE FAVORED. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES OF THIS ARE
GREATEST AT KSME AND KLOZ BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z, AND TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO COVER
ANY RESULTANT VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF
TOMORROW MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. WHILE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL STREAM INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AND VISIBILITIES HIGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CAMDEN/GREIF
AVIATION...MARCUS
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