131
FXUS63 KJKL 152220
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE VA-KY
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE A COUPLE MORE SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH SUNSET NEAR VA, THE EXISTING SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED
SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE DAKOTAS, WHILE TO OUR
EAST, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. LOCALLY,
THE WEATHER IS TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTICS MATCH THE SURFACE FEATURES,
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE DAKOTA LOW. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SANDHILLS OF GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED CIRCULATION IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CAPE HATTERAS FEATURE, WHICH IS VERTICALLY
STACKED TO THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ITS SURFACE FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE CWA, BRINGING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE MAIN HINDRANCE
TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS THE FACT THAT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR, WHICH
LIMITS THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS ALSO
LEADS TO LOWERED TDS AND RHS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY DEVELOPMENT
WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
TUESDAY WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME WEATHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY WOBBLING NORTH TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP,
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT, LIMITING THE OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE LOWERED, WHICH IS THE BIGGEST DEVIATION FROM THE NBM. ALSO
DEVIATING FROM THE NBM, WILL AGAIN FORECAST SPRINKLES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP.
AS WITH MONDAY, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE, GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH THE LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH LOWERED
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES, BUT HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S. TUESDAYS MORE ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S, BUT TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL MATCH THE COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY
AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
TRANSITION FROM A DISTINCT CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE LABRADOR SEA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. TO OUR WEST, THE POLAR JET REMAINS RIDGED WELL INTO
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SETTLED IN THE NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW KEEPING ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY,
AND HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY TRENDING TOWARDS A LATER AND LATER
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
OF WPC AND LREF DATA REVEALS THAT THE MODEL VARIABILITY DOESN'T
INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY, AND EVEN THEN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS FROM DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH AND OUT OF THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. NBM POPS REFLECT THE TREND TOWARDS FURTHER SLOWING OF
THE MID-COUNTRY SYSTEM, KEEPING POPS <20% THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
EVEN SO, HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK ARE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, MAXING OUT AT 30-40% ON SUNDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE GETTING PUSHED LATER AND LATER BY
THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.
WE APPEAR TO GET THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT OF THE CAROLINA COAST
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFF. THIS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION WOULD
HELP TO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT FOG, THOUGH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID
80S ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND IN THE 70S NEAR THE EASTERN
RIDGETOPS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG WITH WEAK (10KT
OR LESS) LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SO TEMPERATURE INCREASES WILL BE SUBTLE AND
GRADUAL, ONLY 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS
REMAINING 10-15 DEGREES COOLER. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO THE LOW
60S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A DIURNAL
CU FIELD IS VISIBLE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
REGION, AS ARE A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. AFTER SUNSET, CLEARING
SKIES ARE FAVORED. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES OF THIS ARE
GREATEST AT KSME AND KLOZ BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z, AND TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO COVER
ANY RESULTANT VSBY REDUCTIONS. AFTER VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF
TOMORROW MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. WHILE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL STREAM INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE AND VISIBILITIES HIGH
THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...MARCUS
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