513
FXUS63 KJKL 131918
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, SEASONABLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR KENTUCKY. THERE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT IS SENDING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DRIFTING WEST AND
DISSIPATING. THESE CLOUDS DID SLOW DOWN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING A
BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SAW AN ENHANCED RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID
50S ON THE HILLS TO THE MID 40S IN THE WESTERN LOW SPOTS.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST - UNDER THE
CLOUDS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A LARGE 5H TROUGH CONSOLIDATING TO
THE EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH ITS CORE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. WHILE
THIS OCCURS, RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STILL KEEPING THE PATTERN QUIET AND BENIGN OVER THIS PART OF THE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS' PERSISTENT SMALL
SPREAD SUPPORTED THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE GRIDS WITH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY JUST TERRAIN DRIVEN
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ANY LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SFC CYCLONE WELL EAST OF KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY
NOT INTERFERE WITH THE DRY AIR'S ABILITY TO WARM EACH DAY. TYPICAL
VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE AT NIGHT (AND EARLY EACH MORNING)
ALONG WITH MODEST RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ELEVATION/TERRAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME EXTRA DRYING APPLIED TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS,
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THATS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS, BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WIND SHIFT PREVIOUSLY FROM THE NORTHEAST, TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED, TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 50S.
A PATTERN CHANGE, AND THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE AT RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR
NEXT WEEKEND, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MATURE AND OCCLUDE OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THE OCCLUDED HEAD LOCATED
OVER THE ND/MN AREA, AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FURTHER
SOUTH DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH ITS ARRIVAL INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH WAA OCCURRING
THROUGH SATURDAY, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S,
AND LOW 80S. A BREEZY SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE AREA WILL BE ON
THE BACK END OF THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE EXITING LOW, HOWEVER A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FAVORED ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SOME CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3.5 AND 6KFT AGL HAVE DEVELOPED
AS WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING. THESE SHOULD LINGER FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD, BUT DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING, VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT
04Z AND DISSIPATE TOWARD 14Z. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THE TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATER IN THE PERIOD, VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL. WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND NORTH TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AT LESS THAN 10KT, AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND SUNSET, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AT LESS THAN 10KT TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page