920
FXUS63 KJKL 141911
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, SEASONABLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DESPITE LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER IN THE
DAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY (ROUGHLY EAST OF US-23), WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSER TO 60°F IN
THE FAR EAST WHERE THE LINGERING STRATUS PERSISTS. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION,
COURTESY OF CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND A STRONG ~1034 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED WELL
TO OUR NORTH, FROM LOWER ONTARIO THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OUT
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT, 500 HPA RIDGING DOMINATES FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKE. A DISTURBANCE IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE RIDGE THIS
EVENING, THEN PROPAGATE DOWN ITS EASTERN SIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SINKING SOUTHWARD
FROM EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE, AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
HIGH SIMILARLY WEAKENS AND PASSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO EVENTUALLY CROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE
RAP13 AND SPC HREF BOTH HINT AT A POSSIBLE STRATUS DECK ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO A LACK OF BROAD MODEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER, FOG IN THE SHELTERED
RIVER VALLEYS IS ALMOST CERTAIN. ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SHOULD
BE LIMITED OVERALL BY A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AT NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED, THOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL FOG IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE TYPICALLY FAVORED SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TREND COOLER, IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT,
SETTLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE LONG-TERM WINDOW COMMENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRY COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA, DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MIGRATING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC. COLD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS AND USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERHEAD.
WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER IN A BRIEF WARM-UP AS THE REGION
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TRANSIENT RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS
THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP, ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY BRING AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, CAUSING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FROPA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PRECEDING DAYS.
POST-FRONTAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AND DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACCOMPANYING THE ACTIVE LONG-TERM PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY. HIGHS WILL BEGIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY, CLIMBING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOW 80S
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 40S. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH UPPER 30S
VALUES POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, POST-FRONTAL LOWS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 30S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WITH A SLOW MODERATION BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AT TAF ISSUANCE, THE LINGERING STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY ERODING
BACK INTO WEST VIRGINIA LEAVING JUST A FEW SHALLOW STRATO CU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPING AND SINKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY -- FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MATERIALIZING IS LOW. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS ALMOST CERTAIN
AGAIN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TAF
SITES. NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page