239
FXUS63 KJKL 160849
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
449 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, SEASONABLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME THIS WEEKEND.
- THE PROBABILITY FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY IS INCREASING
WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OF 40 MPH AT THE
SURFACE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES THE FORECAST AREA IS
SITUATED BETWEEN TWO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES: THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT, WHICH HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AND A
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WYOMING. EXTENDING
FROM THIS SURFACE FEATURE, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOCALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER, BUT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING A STREAM OF
STRATUS CLOUDS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS EXPANSIVE DECK OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD, PREVENTING
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LEADING TO WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALSO ENSURE THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR, CONTRIBUTING TO LOWERED
DEW POINTS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-30
PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND DEW POINTS REMAIN LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TRANSIENT
PATTERN WILL USHER IN A BRIEF WARM-UP, AS THE COMMONWEALTH BECOMES
SITUATED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, AND STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP,
ADVECTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THURSDAYS HIGHS,
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 70S .
IN SUMMARY, THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
DICTATE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S. ONCE THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE TRANSITION POINT INTO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS MARKED BY
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FROPA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS NOTED A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS IN
THE OVERNIGHT SUITE. HOWEVER, THE POT FOR FROPA HAS BEEN INCREASED,
AS THE COMBINED DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OVERNIGHT CHANGE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE TOTAL QPF EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS FROPA. WHILE THE BLUEGRASS REGION STILL
APPEARS TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST QPF WITHIN THE CWA, RAIN SHADOWING
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE (STILL
UPWARDS OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS), THE FRONTS DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING. THIS MIXING COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
(AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE EXITING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DOMINATING THE
PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVE LONG-TERM PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY, AND THEN INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. FOLLOWING THE FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY, POST-FRONTAL LOWS WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WITH A SLOW MODERATION BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A 3,000 TO
5,000 FT STRATUS DECK IS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COULD
CREATE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THIS STRATUS DECK IS
FORECAST TO BURN OFF TOWARD MORNING AND SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT TO
SKC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MIXING COULD BRING A FEW MEASURED
WINDS AT KSME, KLOZ AND KSYM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN
AFTER 00Z/FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST
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