136
FXUS63 KJKL 161900
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, SEASONABLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME THIS WEEKEND.
- THE PROBABILITY FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY IS INCREASING
WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OF 40 MPH AT THE
SURFACE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
BRIGHT SUN AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW
70S ARE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A ~1024 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
THIS DRY AIR IS EVIDENT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT, WHICH RANGES
FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S NORTHEAST OF KY-15 TO THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 50S NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
UNDER THE FAVORED ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE EAST OF A 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
THE 500 HPA RIDGE WILL TILT POSITIVELY AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO EASTERN QUEBEC BY 12Z
SATURDAY, WHILE A TROUGH OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY, AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT IN
THOSE COOLEST HOLLOWS THAT EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST DRYING AND
LOWEST DEW POINTS (GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF KY-15). NOCTURNAL
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE IN THE VALLEYS OF MAINSTEM
RIVERS AND LARGER TRIBUTARIES, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MID-AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY THIS
EVENING UNDER FAIR SKIES. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE COLDEST
NORTHEASTERN HOLLOWS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S, WITH LIGHT
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED IN VALLEYS ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS, LARGER CREEKS, AND
LAKES. SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE TRANSITION POINT INTO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS MARKED BY
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE A SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FROPA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS NOTED A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS IN
THE OVERNIGHT SUITE. HOWEVER, THE POT FOR FROPA HAS BEEN INCREASED,
AS THE COMBINED DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OVERNIGHT CHANGE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE TOTAL QPF EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS FROPA. WHILE THE BLUEGRASS REGION STILL
APPEARS TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST QPF WITHIN THE CWA, RAIN SHADOWING
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE (STILL
UPWARDS OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS), THE FRONTS DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING. THIS MIXING COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
(AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOLLOWING THE EXITING FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DOMINATING THE
PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVE LONG-TERM PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY, AND THEN INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND
FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. FOLLOWING THE FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY, POST-FRONTAL LOWS WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS, WITH A SLOW MODERATION BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY, WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. LIGHT, VARIABLE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLACKENING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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