911
FXUS63 KJKL 171904
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT
LASTING INTO SUNDAY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
- SUNDAY WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER ARE LIKELY, WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF 40+ MPH REMAINING AT A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN PRIOR
FORECAST, SO THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES WERE NUDGED
DOWN A DEGREE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA -- ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO 69
NORTH FOOTHILLS TO 77 NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
FOG HAS LIFTED AND DISSIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY
COALFIELDS, LEAVING BRIGHT SUNSHINE AN A FEW HIGH CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL ANTICIPATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND. HOURLY T AND SKY COVER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT
INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS; OTHERWISE, FORECAST WAS
STILL IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
FOG LINGERS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND ALONG THE LARGEST CREEKS
WHILE CIRRUS IS PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY THE 9 TO 10 AM TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A MILDER DAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE GULF TOT HE LOWER OH VALLEY TO WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO WESTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL OW WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE BORDER AREA OF ND WITH SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA
WITH A TRAILING 500 MB TROUGH AXIS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TO
SOUTHERN CA AND INTO THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. LOCALLY, FOG
HAS FORMED ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND ALONG SOME OF THE LARGEST
CREEKS AND AREA LAKES WITH THIS GENERALLY MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
KY AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS. PER KY MESONET AND HOME WEATHER
STATION NETWORKS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO AS LOW AS 36 TO 39
WHERE FOG HAS NOT BEEN PRESENT OR ONLY TRANSIENT WHILE
TEMPERATURES AT 5 AM RANGED THROUGH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.
TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST TO THE
CARIBBEAN TO FL TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EASTERN KY TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FURTHER
WEST AND NORTHWEST, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS TO
BAJA REGION AND ANTHER SHORTWAVE REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/MT.
MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN ONTARIO
THIS EVENING WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO
ND TO MT. LOCALLY, INITIAL RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS PAST SUNRISE OR THE 9 TO 10
AM EDT TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODERATE TODAY
WITH THE SFC HIGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE DEWPOINTS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR OR
BELOW 30 PERCENT IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, HOWEVER.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, FURTHER WEST,
SHORTWAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE INTO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
SHOULD MORE OR LESS MERGE WITH THE SECONDARY COLDER PUSH WITH THE
BOUNDARY REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO TX
AND OK PANHANDLES REGIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY, VALLEY FOG
SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEATURE ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS, THE LARGEST
CREEKS, AND AREA RIVERS TONIGHT. LOWS HOWEVER SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEGREE MILDER COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS. OTHERWISE, RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FURTHER
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2000 FEET. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE 50S WITH PW CLIMBING TO 1 INCH AND ABOVE FOR
FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST LOCATIONS AND ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PER 00Z LREF. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AT THE TRANSITION POINT BETWEEN TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. FIRST, THE WEEKEND’S STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DEPART, LEAVING LINGERING IMPACTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE
WEST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA, AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING WILL
USHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CAA TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ITSELF ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A NEW TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT INTRODUCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ADVECTING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER AS THE WAA TRULY TAKES HOLD ALOFT.
CONCURRENTLY ON MONDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST, THE SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA. WITH AN 80-TO-90 KNOT JET CORE SWINGING
OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER-LEVEL MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, COUPLED WITH INDICATIONS FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER,
A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT, AND HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN
90% FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH) INDICATE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 MPH ARE VERY LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE
LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE POP ARE AREAS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER
AND NORTH; MEANING THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT WINDY
ALONG THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. AS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT, POST-FRONTAL CAA AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR INSTANCES OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, MAINTAINING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CAA IS
REFLECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DUE TO ANTICIPATED RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE A SUBTLE WARM-UP AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW, LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
NOTICEABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING THE PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NONETHELESS, THE OVERALL TREND INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MULTIPLE PASSING
DISTURBANCES BRINGING GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS, SOME RAIN, AND NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD
VALUES EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER, WITH THE ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WERE PREVAILING AT TAF
ISSUANCE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT IN
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS (E.G K1A6 AND KBYL, AND KI35) WHERE MVFR
OR WORSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL FOG
LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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